543
FXUS64 KOHX 091705
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1205 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

- Warm this week. Highs will reach the 70s most days.

- 30 to 50 percent chance for showers and a few thunderstorms
  Wednesday night into Thursday.

- Showers and storms Friday night through Saturday. The pattern
  shows potential for severe storms and heavy rainfall, but
  details are very uncertain at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Mostly quiet wx conditions will continue through the rest of
today and tonight. There are scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms in progress across the Lower Ms Valley and Deep
South ahead of a disturbance from Texas. This disturbance will
continue to impact the Deep South through tonight, and a few
showers may creep up into our southern 2 tiers of counties at
times. Rainfall amounts along the northern fringe of this system
will be very light.

Starting Monday, surface high pressure with a building upper level
ridge will bring an early taste of spring. Mainly sunny skies will
be in place Monday with highs in the 60s area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1100 AM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

Warm and dry, spring-like conditions will be in place Tuesday and
Wednesday as dry high pressure remains in control with an upper
level ridge extending west to east across the southern states.
Temperatures will run around 15 degrees above normal with daytime
highs in the 70s and overnight lows mostly in the 40s and 50s.
South to southwest winds will pick up a little Tuesday into
Wednesday, and this could boost temps even warmer than our
forecast values, perhaps around 80 in some spots.

By Wednesday afternoon, a compact shortwave will bring stormy wx to
the ArkLaTex spreading to the Mid South. It appears the system
will weaken by the time it reaches us Wednesday night into
Thursday. There will be scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder, but we do not expect any severe wx and average rainfall
amounts will be less than one quarter inch for locations that
receive rain. Otherwise, the warm pattern will continue late this
week with Friday temps well into the 70s to around 80.

Unfortunately, we are seeing a much stronger system with potential
for widespread stormy wx this weekend. A large and deep low pressure
system with a trailing cold front will form over the Plains
Friday, then move eastward Saturday and Saturday night. The main
surface low is expected to track well to our north, up into the
Great Lakes, but this expansive system could bring severe wx all
the way from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast. As one would expect in
this forecast timeframe, there are many uncertainties including
the exact strength and track of the system, return moisture
quality, surface instability, and timing of the cold front. What
we can say with some confidence for Middle Tennessee is the
weekend looks quite breezy with showers and storms and heavy
downpours at times. Rain probabilities are around 80 percent for
Saturday with an 80 percent chance for more than 1 inch of rain.
Some models are suggesting higher totals well over 2 inches for
the weekend! The severe storm potential (damaging winds, hail,
tornadoes) will come into better focus as we go through the week,
so stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sun Mar 9 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with mid to high-
level clouds. Winds will generally be northerly to northeasterly
at less than 10 knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      39  67  42  76 /   0   0   0   0
Clarksville    35  66  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Crossville     36  61  36  68 /  10   0   0   0
Columbia       38  66  39  74 /  20   0   0   0
Cookeville     36  63  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Jamestown      34  61  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Lawrenceburg   39  66  39  72 /  20   0   0   0
Murfreesboro   36  66  38  74 /  10   0   0   0
Waverly        37  66  42  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION.....Clements