335
FXUS64 KOHX 040423
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1123 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1118 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

- Below normal temperatures will continue through mid-week.

- An unsettled pattern is expected throughout the week, with low
  to medium rain chances each afternoon/evening. However, the
  severe thunderstorm threat is very low for at least the next 8
  days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Showers have come an end for today, but partly to mostly cloudy
conditions persist as low-level moisture remains and an inverted
surface trough hangs just off to our east. This trough, plus a
developing upper level trough over the midwest will do two things
for us here in Middle TN through Wednesday: 1. low to medium chances
for rain with a few rumbles of thunder each afternoon/evening (with
the best chances east of I-65 each day) and 2. keep temperatures
well below normal for everyone. Right now, I don`t see any signal
for heavy rain, like we had in Wilson county today. However, overall
flow will continue to be weak, so this will need to monitored. No
severe weather is expected, either.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Thursday looks to be a day of transition for us. Diurnal showers and
thunderstorms will still be around, but we begin to lose the
influence of the upper level troughing and (weak) high pressure
starts to reassert itself across the southeast United States. I
think we maintain the low to medium storm chances each day, where
not everyone will see rain, but with temperatures starting to climb
back into the low 90s for many, we will return to a much more
unstable air mass. Those that do see storms will run the risk of
seeing a few gusty winds, heavy rain and lots of lightning. This
should be the case for Friday right through next weekend.
Fortunately, forecast soundings for the second half of the workweek
look rather benign with 6.0 deg/km lapse rates or less, so the
threat of any severe weather should be very low.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Aug 3 2025

An inverted surface trough situated just east of the Tennessee
River has provided the focus for numerous showers and a few
storms today, some exhibiting very high rainfall rates. Active
weather is on the decline now and should remain at a nadir during
the overnight period and during the day tomorrow. We do expect
overnight low ceilings at some of the terminals and also light
radiation fog -- especially along the Cumberland Plateau. All TAFs
are VFR from 13Z onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  84  68  85 /  30  30  20  20
Clarksville    68  83  66  84 /  20  40  30  20
Crossville     61  78  62  76 /  20  30  30  40
Columbia       65  82  65  83 /  20  20  20  10
Cookeville     64  81  64  80 /  30  30  30  40
Jamestown      63  80  63  78 /  30  40  30  40
Lawrenceburg   64  81  64  82 /  30  20  20  10
Murfreesboro   66  84  66  84 /  30  20  20  20
Waverly        66  82  65  83 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Rose