733
FXUS64 KOHX 112358
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
658 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 656 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

- Rain and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend, best
  chances are during the afternoon.

- While the risk of severe storms remains very low, localized
  flash flooding, gusty winds, and frequent lightning will be
  possible with strongest storms.

- Warm and humid conditions persist into next week with heat index
  values creeping back up into the low 100s at times.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Showers and thunderstorms are starting to show some signs of
weakening with the sunset this evening. Expect a similar pattern
tomorrow, but more coverage thanks to more moisture in the area.
Forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Saturday)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Satellite and RADAR observations are becoming a little busy around
Noon currently, with PWs above 1.5" along and south of I-40.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast in this area,
with more isolated coverage northward. Otherwise, a pretty typical
summer day is in store with high in the upper 80s to lower 90s and
a light southwesterly breeze. Brief heavy downpours, gusty winds,
and frequent lightning are possible in isolated stronger storms
through the afternoon.

Relatively calm overnight conditions are forecast across Middle TN
with patchy fog possible in the usual locations. Lows in the low
to mid 70s are forecast, with cooler temps (upper 60s) over the
Plateau.

For tomorrow, showers and thunderstorms appear to be more numerous
as PWs increase area-wide due to an increase in southwesterly
low-level flow ahead of a system to our northwest. While we only
get a glancing blow from the departing shortwave to the north,
there`s enough extra forcing to indicate better coverage and
perhaps some multicell clusters and cold pooling during the
afternoon. No organized severe weather is expected at this time,
which is mainly inhibited by poor mid-level lapse rates and <15
kts effective bulk shear.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 1139 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Middle Tennessee will remain in a favorable zone for continued
rain chances through the long-term forecast. Sunday could once
again be an afternoon of scattered to numerous showers and storms
with enhanced moisture values remaining in the area near ahead of
the stalling, diffuse front to our north, as well as the approach
of a weakening shortwave disturbance aloft. We`ll see similar
impacts with isolated stronger storms, and perhaps, some
localized flooding where any training should occur.

Next week favors a slightly above average temperature trend as
ridging strengthens across the region. Highs will be the mid 90s
for Nashville and surrounding areas by mid week. However, we`ll
continue to be plagued by humid conditions and diurnal convection
each day. Afternoon heat indices each day should range in the 90s
to the lower 100s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

A few showers and thunderstorms are approaching CKV so have
including VCTS for a few hours. These showers will dissipate as
the sun sets. Winds will also die off. Clear skies expected once
again overnight. Models are not hinting at as much overnight fog
and low clouds as previous nights...however not sure what will
happen over the plateau..so held on to a few hours of MVFR VIS
for CSV/SRB. This will have to be watched to make sure it
materializes and for timing. Scattered PROB30 again tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Calm to light winds overnight and then
turning a bit westerly during the day tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  94  74  93 /  10  30  20  60
Clarksville    73  92  74  91 /  10  40  20  60
Crossville     67  87  67  88 /  10  50  20  60
Columbia       71  93  72  93 /  20  30  20  60
Cookeville     70  89  69  88 /  10  40  20  60
Jamestown      68  88  68  88 /  10  50  20  60
Lawrenceburg   70  92  70  92 /  20  40  20  60
Murfreesboro   72  94  72  93 /  10  40  20  60
Waverly        72  92  71  91 /  10  40  20  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Holley
SHORT TERM...Sizemore
LONG TERM....Sizemore
AVIATION.....13