032
FXUS64 KOHX 282346
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
646 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

- Warm and humid conditions will continue with highs mostly in the
  80s through Thursday.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms (20 to 40 percent chance)
  will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday. More numerous showers
  and thunderstorms (50 to 70 percent) are expected Thursday into
  Friday.

- Widespread severe weather is not expected this week, but a few storms
  could become severe at times in the heat of the afternoon and
  evening hours. Tuesday afternoon could bring a brief severe
  storm into our far northern counties. Otherwise, the greatest
  risk for a few severe storms will come to the entire Mid State
  Thursday afternoon.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Monday was a warm and more humid day with highs reaching the upper
70s Plateau and low to mid 80s elsewhere. Tonight will be very
mild with lows in the 60s thanks to a steady south breeze through
the night. Skies will vary from clear to partly cloudy. No changes
needed to the forecast this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

High pressure has slid off to our east today and we are sitting
under an upper level ridge. This will bring quiet weather into the
overnight. Southerly winds will push highs back into the 80s. Some
cumulus clouds will pop up this afternoon but no precip is
expected. High cloud move in this evening and overnight with mild
overnight lows in the mid 60s to around 70.

A strong area of low pressure is working through the Northern
Plains into the Great Lakes today and will bring an active
afternoon and evening for them. This will push a cold front south
into our part of the region on Tuesday. Plenty of CAPE will build
in during the afternoon with 1500-2500 j/kg. Bulk shear will be
around 15 knots in the afternoon increasing to around 25 knots in
the evening. The front will stall out to our north in the evening
and the better forcing will remain to our north over KY but we
still should see some storms pop up in the mid-afternoon
continuing into the evening. The best storm chances will be along
and north of I-40. Some of the storms could be strong to severe
with wind and hail the main threat, weak low level winds will keep
the tornado threat very low. Highs Tuesday will be be in the low
to mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

The cold front will become a stationary front set up to our north
over KY on Wednesday. This will keep showers and thunderstorms in
the forecast for Tuesday night and at least the first part of the
day Wednesday. An upper level trough will start to push out of
the four corners region in the afternoon and that will lift the
front north as a warm front. This will bring dry conditions later
in the afternoon into the overnight.

The short wave trough and a developing surface low will pass to
our northwest on Thursday pushing a cold front into Middle TN.
CAPE during the afternoon will push to 1000-1800 j/kg highest
towards the TN river with bulk shear 25-35 knots. The front looks
to push into the western part of the area in the mid to late
afternoon and work east into the early part of the overnight.
Lapse rates look modest and given the amount of shear and good
forcing we could see a few stronger storms with the front. Large
hail and gusty winds would be the main threats. The front will
linger over Middle TN on Friday and will continue to bring showers
and thunderstorms throughout the day with the highest chances in
the southeastern part of the area.

Great weather will return just in time for the weekend. Upper
level ridge will amplify to our west with surface high pressure
building to our north. This will bring dry weather into early next
week. After seeing highs in the 80s throughout the week we will
cool into the 70s for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period with southerly
winds. Breezy winds this afternoon will lessen after sunset but
will strengthen again with occasional gusts near 20 knots
Tuesday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected Tuesday starting
between 18Z and 21Z, however, confidence is not high enough in
direct impacts to terminals to include in TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      68  86  67  86 /   0  40  30  40
Clarksville    69  86  66  85 /   0  40  30  40
Crossville     59  78  61  81 /   0  30  30  50
Columbia       67  85  65  86 /   0  20  10  30
Cookeville     63  81  63  82 /   0  30  40  50
Jamestown      60  80  61  82 /   0  40  40  60
Lawrenceburg   66  84  65  84 /   0  20  10  20
Murfreesboro   66  85  65  86 /   0  30  20  30
Waverly        69  86  66  86 /   0  30  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......13
SHORT TERM...Mueller
LONG TERM....Mueller
AVIATION.....Clements