Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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775 FXUS66 KOTX 021158 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 458 AM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mountain showers, seasonal temperatures, and breezy winds will recur through Wednesday. Confidence is increasing in a substantial long duration heatwave starting after July 4th. && .DISCUSSION... Today and tomorrow: There is a small chance of thunderstorms (20- 40%) in NE WA and N ID again today as a 500 mb speed max approaches the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Activity should be limited to northern Stevens, Pend Oreille, Bonner, and Boundary Counties today. Thunderstorms will be capable of infrequent lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. Central Washington will be dry and breezy especially the Cascade gaps. MOS/HREF guidance indicates Wenatchee could briefly touch red flag warning criteria, but conditions likely wont last long enough to warrant one. Another shortwave approaches tomorrow bringing renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms in the same areas (20-40% chance). /butler Thursday through Monday: Strong ridging across the region will lead to dry conditions and temperatures turning hotter for Independence Day into the weekend. Afternoon highs for the weekend and Monday are forecast to run about 10-15+ degrees above normal, with some locations having the potential to approach daily records. The good news (at least regarding fire weather concerns) is that winds are not expected to be very strong...though the Wenatchee area, Waterville Plateau, and Cascade gaps may see some occasional breezes Sunday and Monday. /KD && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: Dry and breezy west-southwest winds will be common over the region Tuesday afternoon, with the strongest gusts at KEAT after 22z. There will still be enough lingering moisture and instability over the north Idaho Panhandle for a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms including Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry. Wenatchee will stay breezy into Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 81 52 82 55 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 78 50 78 53 83 55 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 Pullman 76 50 77 52 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 86 56 86 60 93 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 79 48 79 46 85 50 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 75 48 76 49 81 50 / 30 30 20 0 0 0 Kellogg 73 50 73 55 80 57 / 10 10 20 0 0 0 Moses Lake 87 54 88 57 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 83 54 86 61 93 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 88 55 88 57 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$