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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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368 FXUS66 KOTX 171850 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1150 AM PDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and dry weather will continue this week with widespread upper 90s and triple digit temperatures. Today there is chance of thunderstorms across the region containing little to no rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... UPDATE...Issued red flag warnings for portions of Stevens and Pend Oreille county as well as the southern Palouse and Snake River area for this afternoon and tonight. Today through Thursday night: Upper level ridge axis remains positioned to the east, more or less over Northwest Montana. This will allow for warm/hot southwest flow on the west side of the ridge to persist and keep temperatures on the hot side. In addition this provided southwest to northeast path will not only steer smoke in from fires to the south but also weather disturbances such as the one expected to bring low precipitation producing (dry) thunderstorms today. This disturbance is visible on satellite imagery as it spins counterclockwise over Western Oregon this morning. Lightning will raise concerns for new fire starts across the landscape. In addition, gusty outflow winds could result in fire spread with any new starts. A Red flag warning is in effect for several areas of North Central Washington Wednesday. Smoke from the Pioneer Fire near lake Chelan as well as other local and regional fires in Washington and Oregon will continue to impact air quality hence air quality alerts remain in effect for a number of counties in Washington and Idaho. /Pelatti Friday to Tuesday: A rebounding ridge will bring mostly dry and hotter conditions this period. However there will be at least a couple features to watch that could alter this thinking. On Friday one such feature is a shortwave disturbance that lifts through the region, near the Cascades through north Idaho. However, unlike the wave that pushes through today, the atmosphere Friday is very dry. While there lapse rates remain steep, there is little if any convective instability. Thus aside from a few more clouds and some breezy conditions near the Cascade gaps and western basin, this feature is expected to pass without precipitation chances. If more moisture or instability can into the region then the forecast would need changing, but confidence leans toward dry. The ridge rebounds into early next week ahead of deeper low over the eastern Pacific. Another disturbance skims by the Cascades Sunday, but appears to weaken as it does. Then the offshore trough tries to advance inland toward Monday and Tuesday of next week. Some guidance does start to introduce some isolated shower chances with it, but consistency from run-to-run and model-to-model still supports a dry forecast. This too will have to be monitored should the models start to trend with higher PoPs. The system should come with increased winds, especially near the Cascades and central WA, so with continued dry conditions we will have to monitor this for critical fire conditions. Temperatures will be the most notable thing aside from the fire weather concerns, as highs push into the 100s for much of the weekend into next Monday before trending down toward Tuesday. Saturday and Sunday may see some dangerous heat too. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: High clouds and smoke are passing through the region. Downslope winds along the East Slopes of the Cascades will push smoke from the Pioneer Fire down Lake Chelan into the Chelan and Methow Valley airports this morning. Some minor visibility reductions will also occur at the Lewiston airport with localized smoke from Oregon. Small chance of thunderstorms overnight and into Thursday morning for most TAF sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: With the exception of smoke near the Pioneer Fire and in Lewiston, there is high confidence in VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 100 65 98 64 98 66 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 98 63 95 63 96 63 / 10 20 0 0 0 0 Pullman 95 58 94 59 94 61 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 104 71 104 71 104 71 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 98 57 97 55 97 56 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 95 60 93 58 94 57 / 10 20 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 96 67 92 68 94 69 / 10 20 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 102 63 101 62 101 62 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 101 71 102 70 100 70 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 Omak 104 67 103 66 103 66 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for Coeur d`Alene Area- Idaho Palouse-Lewiston Area. WA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for Central Chelan County- Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning until midnight PDT tonight for Lower Palouse - Snake River (Zone 709). Red Flag Warning until midnight PDT tonight for Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Red Flag Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Thursday for Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701). Red Flag Warning until midnight PDT tonight for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)- Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706). && $$