630
FXUS66 KOTX 151756
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1056 AM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Monday won`t be quite as hot as it was over the weekend, but high
temperatures will still be eight to ten degrees above average.
There will be a 10 to 15 percent chance of dry thunderstorms on
Wednesday with the arrival of an upper level disturbance.
Widespread upper 90s and triple digit temperatures are likely
Wednesday through the weekend as our hot July continues.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through next Sunday: Today will be the `coolest` day for the
next week, with highs in the 90s to low 100s. Winds will increase
again this afternoon, with gusts of 15 to 20 mph across the Columbia
Basin. As the ridge builds in Tuesday, temperatures will start to
warm, increasing by 2-3 degrees each day through Saturday. Models
are hinting at a shortwave sliding through Tuesday that could lead
to a couple thunderstorms but confidence is not high. We`ll keep an
eye on this system and see how it progresses through the next 24
hours.

Wednesday brings the next forecast change, with a wave passing over
beginning early Wednesday, moving northeast through the CWA. With
elevated moisture, how dry the airmass is at the lower levels and
how high the cloud bases will, there is a concern for regionwide dry
lightning. MUCAPE is also showing 400 to 700 J/kg, enough energy to
pop thunderstorms across the region. This wave will move into the
far southwest corner of the CWA by early morning, moving northeast
as the day progresses. By late evening the threat will have moved to
the northern mountains in the far northeast corner of WA and ID
Panhandle. Isolated dry thunderstorms has been add to the forecast
for this threat. After our period of hot and dry conditions, fuels
will be especially susceptible to ignition, so any lightning could
begin fires.

Thursday and Friday will be more relaxed weatherwise but temperatures
wise, we will see an increase each day. As we reach Saturday,
widespread 100 degree temperatures for the lower elevations,
reaching towards record temperatures. Sunday is forecasted to be
warmer than Saturday again by a could degrees. Nighttime lows will
also warm each day with upper 60s to low 70s expected by Friday
night. Areas along the Columbia River, Okanogan Valley, and LC
Valley are forecasted to have lows only drop into the mid 70s, not
cool enough if you rely on opening your house up at night to cool it
off. If you have outdoor plans late this week into next weekend,
plan for hot temperatures. /KM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Local reductions in
visibility are possible near and downwind of Lake Chelan due to
smoke from the Pioneer Fire. Breezy winds will occur this
afternoon with the strongest winds in the lee of the Cascades.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  93  60  97  65 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  61  90  59  93  65  97 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        58  88  50  93  57  97 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       68  99  66 103  72 106 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       54  92  53  95  57  97 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      57  88  52  94  56  95 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        64  87  62  92  68  97 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     60  98  61 100  66 102 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      68  97  68 100  73 102 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           65 101  65 102  70 102 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and
     Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
     Panhandle.

WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Central Chelan
     County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
     Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-
     Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.

&&

$$