569
FXUS64 KOHX 141132
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
632 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Radar imagery this morning shows scattered light showers across
western parts of Middle Tennessee into West Tennessee. This
activity is occurring thanks to a passing shortwave trough aloft
as depicted on 00Z global models, and is also forming along and
west of a weak NW-SE oriented warm front with dewpoints in the 70s
to the west of the boundary and 60s to the east. Models are not
handling this activity well although the HRRR seems to have the
general idea, and widely scattered showers look to continue across
our western counties through midday today before dissipating.
Have added a slight chance pop over our west to account for these
showers as any rainfall amounts should only amount to a few
hundredths of an inch. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are
anticipated over the rest of the midstate today with highs
getting a few degrees warmer than yesterday in the 86-92 range.

Tomorrow looks even hotter as the center of an H5 ridge over the
southern Plains shifts eastward towards us, with highs reaching
the upper 80s in the Upper Cumberland and 92-97 range elsewhere.
Once again, a weak passing shortwave trough aloft may spawn a few
isolated showers or storms over the western half of Middle
Tennessee on Thursday afternoon, but only a slight chance pop
appears warranted.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 104 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Our biggest weather impact over the next 7 days is anticipated to
be Friday as a strong upper level low moves into the Great Lakes,
squashing the H5 ridge to our southwest. Two notable shortwave
troughs will pass over the region, first on Thursday night into
early Friday, then again Friday afternoon/evening. Current
indications based on 00Z guidance are that a loosely organized
complex of storms will form near the Ohio River on Thursday night
and move southeast into the midstate early Friday before
weakening, with additional showers and storms developing Friday
afternoon before moving southeastward out of the area Friday
night. As is typical for us, if the early day activity is more
widespread than anticipated, this could decrease shower and storm
development later in the day. Nevertheless, currently appears
high pops are warranted and did not stray far from the likely NBM
pops. Forecast soundings show ample MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/Kg on
Friday, fairly steep mid level lapse rates around 7 C/km, high
DCAPE values around 1500 J/Kg, and deep layer shear up to 35
knots. All of these values are quite favorable for damaging winds
with any storms that develop on Friday, especially in the
afternoon/evening, and I`d expect SPC to add us into a marginal or
slight risk for severe storms on their new Day 3 outlook.

Additional showers and storms are possible on Saturday ahead of a
cold front that will push southward through the region, although
best chances will be across our southern and eastern counties.
Forecast soundings do not show anything notable for Saturday so
not anticipating any strong or severe activity. After Saturday,
global models depict a deep upper trough setting up along the
east coast, which will keep us in northwesterly flow aloft for
much of next week. This pattern will keep us in near or even
slightly below normal temperatures for the extended forecast, as
well as return us to dry conditions with no significant rain
chances from Sunday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR conditions thru 15/12Z. Per proximity to light shwr activity,
vcnty of shwrs CKV with overcast stratus around 4 kft thru
04/17Z. Some low/mid level cloudiness, with broken ceilings around
5kft possible thru 14/19Z along with patches of bkn ci as NWLY
flow pattern aloft prevails BNA/MQY. Drier airmass continues to be
expected across SRB/CSV with bkn high level ci at times. Sfc
winds generally light & variable thru 15/12Z. Per communication
issues continuance, continued AMD NOT SKED SRB/CSV thru 15/12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      92  70  95  76 /  10   0  10  30
Clarksville    89  67  92  74 /  10   0  20  50
Crossville     86  62  87  67 /  10   0  10  20
Columbia       91  67  95  74 /  20   0  20  20
Cookeville     86  65  88  70 /  10   0  10  20
Jamestown      86  63  87  69 /  10   0  10  20
Lawrenceburg   90  67  94  73 /  10   0  20  20
Murfreesboro   91  67  95  74 /  10   0  10  20
Waverly        89  69  94  73 /  20   0  20  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....JB Wright