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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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569 FXUS64 KOHX 141132 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 632 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 104 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Radar imagery this morning shows scattered light showers across western parts of Middle Tennessee into West Tennessee. This activity is occurring thanks to a passing shortwave trough aloft as depicted on 00Z global models, and is also forming along and west of a weak NW-SE oriented warm front with dewpoints in the 70s to the west of the boundary and 60s to the east. Models are not handling this activity well although the HRRR seems to have the general idea, and widely scattered showers look to continue across our western counties through midday today before dissipating. Have added a slight chance pop over our west to account for these showers as any rainfall amounts should only amount to a few hundredths of an inch. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are anticipated over the rest of the midstate today with highs getting a few degrees warmer than yesterday in the 86-92 range. Tomorrow looks even hotter as the center of an H5 ridge over the southern Plains shifts eastward towards us, with highs reaching the upper 80s in the Upper Cumberland and 92-97 range elsewhere. Once again, a weak passing shortwave trough aloft may spawn a few isolated showers or storms over the western half of Middle Tennessee on Thursday afternoon, but only a slight chance pop appears warranted. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Wednesday) Issued at 104 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 Our biggest weather impact over the next 7 days is anticipated to be Friday as a strong upper level low moves into the Great Lakes, squashing the H5 ridge to our southwest. Two notable shortwave troughs will pass over the region, first on Thursday night into early Friday, then again Friday afternoon/evening. Current indications based on 00Z guidance are that a loosely organized complex of storms will form near the Ohio River on Thursday night and move southeast into the midstate early Friday before weakening, with additional showers and storms developing Friday afternoon before moving southeastward out of the area Friday night. As is typical for us, if the early day activity is more widespread than anticipated, this could decrease shower and storm development later in the day. Nevertheless, currently appears high pops are warranted and did not stray far from the likely NBM pops. Forecast soundings show ample MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/Kg on Friday, fairly steep mid level lapse rates around 7 C/km, high DCAPE values around 1500 J/Kg, and deep layer shear up to 35 knots. All of these values are quite favorable for damaging winds with any storms that develop on Friday, especially in the afternoon/evening, and I`d expect SPC to add us into a marginal or slight risk for severe storms on their new Day 3 outlook. Additional showers and storms are possible on Saturday ahead of a cold front that will push southward through the region, although best chances will be across our southern and eastern counties. Forecast soundings do not show anything notable for Saturday so not anticipating any strong or severe activity. After Saturday, global models depict a deep upper trough setting up along the east coast, which will keep us in northwesterly flow aloft for much of next week. This pattern will keep us in near or even slightly below normal temperatures for the extended forecast, as well as return us to dry conditions with no significant rain chances from Sunday onward. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR conditions thru 15/12Z. Per proximity to light shwr activity, vcnty of shwrs CKV with overcast stratus around 4 kft thru 04/17Z. Some low/mid level cloudiness, with broken ceilings around 5kft possible thru 14/19Z along with patches of bkn ci as NWLY flow pattern aloft prevails BNA/MQY. Drier airmass continues to be expected across SRB/CSV with bkn high level ci at times. Sfc winds generally light & variable thru 15/12Z. Per communication issues continuance, continued AMD NOT SKED SRB/CSV thru 15/12Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 92 70 95 76 / 10 0 10 30 Clarksville 89 67 92 74 / 10 0 20 50 Crossville 86 62 87 67 / 10 0 10 20 Columbia 91 67 95 74 / 20 0 20 20 Cookeville 86 65 88 70 / 10 0 10 20 Jamestown 86 63 87 69 / 10 0 10 20 Lawrenceburg 90 67 94 73 / 10 0 20 20 Murfreesboro 91 67 95 74 / 10 0 10 20 Waverly 89 69 94 73 / 20 0 20 40 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION.....JB Wright