644
FXUS62 KMLB 171826
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
226 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...Highest coverage of showers and storms near and north of the I-4
corridor as a pocket of drier air helps limit development further
south...

...Shower and storm chances increase through the remainder of the
week and into the weekend as moisture recovers...

...Peak heat indices 100 to 105 today will increase to 102 to 110
Thursday and beyond. A return of Major HeatRisk is forecast for a
majority of east central Florida starting Thursday and continuing
into the weekend, with some areas near Orlando  potentially reaching
Extreme HeatRisk...

Current-Tonight...Hot and humid conditions continue with afternoon
temps in the L-M90s and peak heat indices 100-105F, staying below
heat advisory criteria. Those spending extended periods of time
outdoors, are encouraged to remain well-hydrated and take frequent
breaks in the shade or in an air conditioned building. Overnight
lows will remain consistent and in the M-U70s. GOES-16 ECONUS Total
Precipitable Water Imagery continues to show drier air infiltrating
the Space/Treasure coasts and across to Okeechobee and southern
Osceola counties. This will keep afternoon-evening precip chances
limited here, with highest chances across the I-4 corridor (30-
55pct). A few storms here will still be capable of frequent
lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph, and locally heavy
downpours leading to minor/nuisance flooding. Expect activity to
wind down by mid to late evening, with clouds gradually thinning.
Conditions warm and humid overnight with min temps in the M-U70s.

Thursday-Tuesday...Previous Slightly Modified...High pressure over
the western Atlantic will be the main influence across the Florida
peninsula. The associated ridging will gradually lift from central
FL northward this weekend and into early next week as flow becomes
deeper S/SE. The drier air fizzles across the central peninsula over
the next 24 hours as deep layer moisture recovers into the extended.
Weaker flow aloft will continue to allow the development and inland
progression of the east coast sea breeze, with showers and storms
developing along it. The eventual sea breeze and additional outflow
boundary collisions across the interior will lead to increasing
coverage of showers and storms in the afternoon and early evening.
Model guidance is indicating the approach of an inverted trough in
the mid levels Monday into Tuesday, which could lead to some higher
moisture and coverage of showers and storms. Being that this is
further out in time in the forecast, and confidence in higher
coverage at this time is still on the lower side, decided to
continue to cap PoPs at 60%. Will continue to monitor trends as next
week approaches. In general, any activity that develops across the
peninsula will diminish into the overnight hours, with lingering
showers and storms continuing to be possible across the local
Atlantic waters.

Slightly above normal temperatures are forecast to continue
across east central Florida, with afternoon highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. Peak heat
indices will continue to generally hit 100 to 107, with the
potential for a few spots to reach 108 to 110 late this week into
the weekend. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast to continue,
with some spots near the Greater Orlando area and Lake County
potentially reaching Extreme HeatRisk Friday through Sunday. This
means extra caution will need to be taken to prevent heat-related
illnesses. Hydration will continue to be key for both locals and
visitors alike, and breaks either in the shade or in an air
conditioned building should be taken if spending extended periods
of time outdoors.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Through Sunday...Persistent pattern with low-level ridging across
the local waters, potentially lifting northward slowly over the
weekend. This will continue to produce generally favorable boating
conditions. Wind direction generally S/SW at night/morning,
backing SERLY each day with sea breeze formation thru at least
Fri, then staying more uniformly S/SE for much of the rest of the
extended. Wind speeds AOB 15 kts thru the period. Seas mainly 2-3
ft, occasionally 4 ft well offshore; and locally higher invof
lightning storms. ISOLD to SCT showers/storms will continue to
favor the evening and overnight-early morning hour periods. A
greater chance for shower and storm development during the daytime
hours will occur from Fri through Sun. Any storms that develop
may be capable of producing cloud-to-water lightning strikes,
gusty winds, and heavy downpours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024

VFR is forecast outside of storms. Scat`d showers/storms are
forecast to develop into the afternoon/evening with the greatest
chances (30-50%) along and west of I-4. VCTS begins between 18-20Z
at inland sites and KDAB/KTIX with TEMPO TSRA groups this
afternoon/evening for inland sites and KDAB. E/SE winds at 5-10kts
during the afternoon become light from the S/SE overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  94  77  94 /  10  40  10  50
MCO  76  96  77  96 /  20  50  10  60
MLB  77  91  77  91 /  10  50  10  50
VRB  76  92  76  93 /  10  50  10  50
LEE  77  95  78  95 /  20  50  20  60
SFB  76  96  77  96 /  10  50  10  60
ORL  77  96  78  96 /  20  50  10  60
FPR  76  91  76  92 /  10  50  10  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Fehling