956
FXUS62 KMLB 161805
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
205 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 205 PM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

VFR is forecast outside of storms. Scat`d storms are forecast
into this afternoon/evening with greatest coverage near and W of
I-4. TAFs begin with VCTS at 18-19Z for sites N of the Treasure
Coast with TEMPO TSRA groups this afternoon/evening between 18-23Z
at inland sites as well as KDAB/KTIX. E/SE winds at 5-10kts
during the afternoon/evening become light and variable inland
overnight.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 853 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Persistent low-level ridging continues across the central FL
peninsula. The ECSB will develop and push inland this afternoon
and combined with deep moisture, surface heating, and boundary
collisions - expect SCT-NMRS showers and lightning storms
reaching peak coverage and intensity in the late afternoon and
early evening. Greatest chances will be west of I-95 and Cape
northward. Primary storm threats include frequent lightning
strikes, gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph locally, and heavy downpours.
The slow/erratic movement of storms could lead to a quick 1 to 3
inch rainfall total in spots. Minor/nuisance flooding may result
in these areas or any locations that have recently seen abundant
rainfall. Activity is forecast to diminish thru mid to late
evening with clouds thinning overnight.

The heat continues to be a primary concern with forecast highs
continuing in the L-M90s and peak heat indices reaching 102-107F.
HeatRisk, a forecast that evaluates whether there is an elevated
risk of heat-related impacts, is Moderate to Major across east
central Florida. Everyone should continue to take action to
prevent heat-related illness, including taking frequent breaks in
the shade or in an air conditioned building if spending extended
periods of time outdoors as well as remaining well-hydrated. Warm
and muggy conditions will persist into the overnight hours, with
lows only dropping into the M-U70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 445 AM EDT Tue Jul 16 2024

Generally favorable boating conditions are forecast to persist
across the local Atlantic waters as an area of high pressure
remains in place across the western Atlantic. Winds will remain
between 5 to 10 knots out of the south, becoming slightly
stronger at 10 to 15 knots out of the southeast as the sea breeze
develops. Seas are forecast to remain between 2 to 3 feet.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible across
the local waters through the period, primarily during the late
evening and overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  75  94 /  20  50  10  40
MCO  75  95  77  96 /  30  40  10  60
MLB  76  91  77  92 /  10  10  10  50
VRB  75  92  77  92 /  10  10  10  50
LEE  77  94  77  95 /  30  60  10  60
SFB  76  94  77  96 /  20  50  10  50
ORL  77  95  77  96 /  30  40  10  60
FPR  75  91  76  92 /  10  20  10  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Sedlock
AVIATION...Fehling