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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
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506 FXUS61 KBGM 061846 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 246 PM EDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and still somewhat humid this evening, with some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly in Central NY. Mostly clear and seasonably mild overnight with valley fog as a surface high pressure system moves overhead. Dry, warm and sunny weather prevails on Sunday with slightly lower humidity levels. Monday looks to be the hottest day of the week before it turns more unsettled with shower and thunderstorm chances each day for mid to late week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 245 PM Update GOES East visible satellite loop shows scattered to broken (30-60%) cumulus cloud cover out there this afternoon. There is a lake breeze convergence boundary moving into north-central NY which looks to propagate east into this evening, acting as a catalyst for isolated to sct`d showers/t`storms over portions of Central NY. Temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s currently, with sfc dew points dropping back a touch, now between 64-70F, which is up to 7 degrees lower than 24 hours ago (based on 230 PM NY mesonet). MLCAPE is 400-800 J/Kg currently with LIs between -1 and -4 on the SPC mesoanalysis. Effective layer shear is impressive at 40-55 kts currently, but areal average soundings from the 17z HRRR are showing dry air in the 750-550mb layer which is inhibiting any showers that reach this level so far. The HRRR keeps this dry layer, and a weak thermal cap around 575mb in place into the late afternoon hours...and yet it does allow for a few thunderstorms to develop, mainly along the remnant lake air mass boundary, which is progressing east across our western/central CWA at this time. Overall, sounding data shows most parameters unfavorable for severe storms this afternoon...again owing to just too much dry air, and weak mid/upper level lapse rates. Equilibrium levels are low, especially for the mixed layer parcels, only reaching 20k ft agl...and 25k ft agl for surface based parcels. Will continue to monitor, but for now left mainly slight chance to low end chance PoPs in the forecast across Central NY for the late afternoon & early evening. Did include a small area of higher PoPs where the storms are likely to roll through between now and 6 PM, along and north of I-90 from near Syracuse to Rome. Any lingering showers and storms should dissipate around or shortly after sunset with skies becoming mostly clear overnight. Cross over temperatures for valley fog formation are lower, in the low to mid- 60s over the region...but overnight lows will drip down into the upper 50s to mid-60s. Therefore, with light winds and high pressure in place did include patchy/areas of fog for the favored river valley locations into early Sunday morning. Quiet and warm weather on Sunday under high pressure. Valley fog burns off and dissipates by 9 AM. Dew points will be lower between 60-65 in the afternoon, so it will not feel as humid out there. Highs reach into the 80s areawide under mostly sunny skies. Much of the same for Sunday night, with high pressure remaining overhead. Clear skies, light winds and seasonable overnight lows in the 60s will set the stage for more valley fog. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... High pressure starts to build into the region Saturday night shifting any chance of showers and thunderstorms east of the region. With the high pressure system overhead Sunday looks quiet as well. However, heat and humidity will start to increase on the backside of the high. Enough moisture looks to be in place to where a shower or thunderstorm can not be ruled out Monday afternoon or night. Temperatures overall Sunday look slightly cooler ranging from the 60`s to the 80`s. However, temperatures look to warm a few degrees Monday with slightly higher humidity as well. Many valley locations have the potential to hit 90 degrees, coupled with the humidity afternoon heat index values of 95-100 are possible Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Another cold front looks to push toward the region for our next chance of showers and thunderstorms later Tuesday through Wednesday. Temperatures should trend a bit cooler as well. PW values are still forecasted to surge to around 2 inches later Tuesday, introducing a localized small stream and urban flood concern from locally heavy downpours. A more concerning pattern sets up for the middle and back half of the week. Upper level ridging off the east coast looks to slow the movement of the front possibly even stalling out. The track of Beryl has trended northeast enough to where current NHC projections have it going into the Southern Plains early next week. Ensemble guidance shows the potential for Beryl to track further northeast along the previously mentioned cold front into the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes and the Mid Atlantic regions by Thursday. This would enhance tropical moisture for heavy rainfall and potential localized flooding if it tracks close enough to the region. Any threats for gusty winds or isolated tornadoes are also dependent on the track, which is still highly uncertain. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 200 PM Update Mainly VFR conditions persist across the region through the taf period. However, there is a chance for an isolated thunderstorm or two in vicinity of SYR and RME as a surface convergence boundary moves west to east. Therefore, included a PROB30 group at these two sites from 19-23z this afternoon/evening. For the other taf sites, it is very likely to remain dry, with chances for any showers or t`storms only at 10-20% through sunset. Tonight, high pressure and clear skies lead to fog developing again mainly at ELM as they are likely to drop below their cross over temperature during the predawn hours. Included a period of Below Alternate Minimum restrictions in fog for ELM between about 08-11z. The fog should lift and scatter out quickly by mid-morning...with a return to VFR conditions areawide for the rest of Sunday. Outlook... Sunday Afternoon and Monday...Mainly VFR. Tuesday Through Thursday...Showers and thunderstorms possible, with associated restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...MJM SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...MJM