198
FXUS66 KOTX 290804
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
104 AM PDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures trending much warmer today through Tuesday
  including moderate to locally major HeatRisk Monday and
  Tuesday.

- Temperatures trending cooler but still warm Wednesday through
  the remainder of the week

- A 20% chance of mainly mountain showers and thunderstorms
  Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will trend much warmer beginning Sunday, and
continue through the middle of next week. Temperatures will
cool slightly for the middle to end of next week but will remain
above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Tuesday: Ensembles continue to be in excellence
agreement that an upper ridge will build over the western US
through Tuesday bringing high confidence in a rapid warm up.
Monday and Tuesday still look to be the warmest days as 850mb
temps warm to 23-26C, translating to valleys highs in the 90s,
with the hottest locations near 100F. This will result in moderate
to locally major HeatRisk across the region, impacting those
without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. Heat
Advisories are in effect for the region, and have been expanded to
include the Leavenworth area and the Methow Valley.

Tuesday Night through Saturday: Ensembles continue to show the
ridge gradually weakening and shifting east with a southwest flow
aloft over the area. The ensembles have come into better agreement
of the slow ridge break down, with now 85% supporting a slow
breakdown (up from 60% yesterday). Moisture coming up from Oregon
into SE WA and the ID Panhandle in the southwest flow moves in
Tuesday Night into Wednesday with precipitable water increasing to
125-150% of normal and also some elevated CAPE to work with. This
raises concerns for isolated high based thunderstorm activity, but
confidence is too low this far out without adequate forcing to
stray much from the NBM POPs. Yet with the increased moisture
did expand the area with a 20% chance of showers to include the
Palouse and LC Valley Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night.
The NBM is also carrying a 15% chance of thunderstorms in the
Blue Mountains and Camas Prairie, with any strikes a concern for
new fire starts. For Thursday, Independence Day, and Saturday
about 80% of the ensembles showing a lower of moisture content
and more stable conditions over the region as some increase in
westerly flow occurs. There is a minority that show the flow
remaining more southwest with another disturbance for possible
convection. For now confidence is too low in that outcome with a
warm and dry forecast maintained.

The gradual flattening of the ridge will lead to breezy winds
starting Wednesday, especially in Central Washington through the
Cascade gaps. This may lead to elevated fire weather conditions,
which may continue into Thursday. JW

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Building high pressure will deliver clear skies for
the region through 06z Monday. Winds will be terrain driven, at
speeds 10 kts or less through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
of VFR conditions across all of Central and Eastern Washington
and North Idaho. JW

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        85  57  92  61  96  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  84  56  92  60  96  63 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Pullman        83  53  91  58  94  60 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       91  62  99  67 101  70 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       85  48  92  52  95  53 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      83  52  90  54  92  58 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        81  59  90  64  94  67 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Moses Lake     91  57  97  62 101  63 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      90  66  97  69  98  69 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           90  59  96  62  99  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Central
     Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses
     Lake Area-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan
     Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington
     Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western
     Okanogan County.
ID...Heat Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Coeur
     d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce
     Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle.

&&

$$