033
FXUS66 KOTX 052203
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
303 PM PDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated (10-15%) afternoon showers and thunderstorms across
  the northern Mtns and N ID this afternoon and early evening.

- Hot temperatures arrive Monday and continue into at least
  Wednesday.

- Increased winds and elevated fire weather conditions
  Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The progressive shortwave that supported light showers across the
area this morning continues to move off to our east this afternoon.
Meanwhile, another progressive wave is moving through this afternoon
and evening and will try to utilize the what`s left of the moisture
in concert with instability (100-300 j/kg) to support a few showers
and storms (10-15% chance) across the northern Mtns and N ID.

Attention then turns to the upper air pattern as ridging will
slowly start to build tomorrow and amplify as it moves overhead
Monday and Tuesday before breaking down Wednesday. As the area
trends warmer and dryer, heat and fire will remain the chief
concerns. There is good agreement when looking at ensemble
clusters of the ridge dominating Monday and Tuesday and quickly
becoming zonal Wednesday. Heat wise, moderate to major heatRisk
is possible Monday through Wednesday. Temperature spread is
quite low Monday and Tuesday of 3-5 degrees, however there is
increased uncertainty on Wednesday where the spread increases to
7-10 degrees across much of the area. The highest heat
confidence lies across greater Columbia Basin where spread is
the least (1-3 degrees) with Tuesday max temperatures
approaching the upper 90s to around 100 degrees.

Wind gusts Tuesday include a 25-75th percentile range of 25-35 mph
across portions of central WA while the area of elevated winds
expands east across E WA and N ID on Wednesday. The heat and wind
potential in concert with relative humidities falling to the teens
Mon-Wed will result in elevated (Mon/Tue), to potentially critical
fire conditions (Wed). The GEFS hot, dry, windy (HDWI) indices
continue to increase with nearly all members at or above the
90th percentile for Tuesday with some uncertainty still showing
up Wednesday though now ranging between the 75th and 95th HDWI
percentiles. This period will continue to be monitored closely
as we move into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS: The showers we saw overnight from moisture wrapping
around a broad low pressure system are beginning to dissipate.
Cigs are generally around 6-8k ft AGL with few-sct coverage as
low as 2.5k ft AGL. Areas near the Canadian border will see a
renewed threat for convective showers and small threat for
thunderstorms (20%) between 21-03z. Light winds are expected
regionwide through the TAF period with infrequent afternoon
gusts of 15-20 kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
for VFR conditions through the period with the exception of PUW
for which MVFR ceilings may linger for the next hour or two. Main
threat for convective showers and isolated t-storms this afternoon
will be from Oroville to Bonners Ferry.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        55  85  56  91  60  97 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  54  83  55  88  59  95 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        49  81  51  88  56  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       60  91  61  96  66 103 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       46  84  48  89  52  95 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      51  80  49  86  53  93 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        57  80  59  87  63  93 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     54  89  56  96  61 101 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      59  90  64  95  68  99 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           57  88  59  94  62 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$