980
FXUS66 KOTX 032055
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
155 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Breezy winds, and a chance of showers on Independence Day.

- Thunderstorm chances in far southeastern Washington, southern
  and central Idaho Panhandle, and the North Cascades on
  Independence Day.

- Hot temperatures arrive Monday, possibly persisting through
  the remainder of next week.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Independence Day will bring breezy winds and a chance of showers
across the region. Thunderstorm potential also exists on
for far southeastern Washington, the central and southern Idaho
Panhandle, and the North Cascades. Hot temperatures arrive on
Monday and may persist through the remainder of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Friday Night: Satellite imagery this afternoon
shows a couple features of interest. The first is a large low
pressure system moving into Alberta providing a cooler, westerly
flow over the region today. The second and more important
feature in terms of Independence Day weather is a smaller low
approaching the southern Oregon and northern California coast
this afternoon. Models are in good agreement of increasing
showers and thunderstorms developing south of our area across
Central and Eastern Oregon tonight. Friday morning some of this
moisture begins to lift north towards SE Washington and the
Lewiston area and Camas Prairie for a 20-30% chance of showers.
As the low continues to push east the chances for showers in
these areas increase to 60% in the afternoon, while a 20%
chance pushes north into the Columbia Basin and Spokane/Coeur
d`Alene area, and over the ridges in the northern mountains.

Heading into Friday evening, as moisture continues to push
north and there being a broad area of weak mid level instability
all areas will be under a threat of showers, but ensembles
currently depict coverage of rain reaching the surface to be
isolated in nature (20% coverage) over most of the region, with
the best chances over SE Washington, the ID Panhandle, and over
the northern mountains (30-40%). Yet despite the somewhat low
POP`s, the increased lift with the incoming low and some weak
mid level instability to work with could yield localized areas
with moderate rain showers, putting a damper on outdoor
festivities.

Regarding thunderstorms, the limited instability over Washington
and North Idaho continues to look unfavorable for thunderstorms
with a couple exceptions. One being SE Washington into the
Central Panhandle Mountains (including the LC Valley) Friday
afternoon and evening with 850-500mb MU CAPE of 200-400 J/KG
potentially yielding a few storms. The second is over the North
Cascades during the late afternoon and evening where some of the
CAM`s models continue to show isolated storms forming over the
mountains around and to the north of Lake Chelan.

Cloud cover will yield a day of below normal temperatures for
the Palouse and Lewiston area for Independence Day with highs in
the mid 70s to low 80s. Elsewhere highs will be in the 80s.
Differential heating between the warmer northern valleys and
cooler portions of northern OR/southern WA had the potential to
produce a period of breezy south winds Friday afternoon into the
early evening. Brief gusts in the 20-30 MPH range are possible
from the Columbia Basin, Palouse, LC Valley, and Spokane area
Friday afternoon, and then across the northern valleys Friday
evening. High res models also show breezy Cascade gaps winds
Friday evening with gusts up to 30 MPH around Wenatchee, Chelan,
and Vantage. JW

Saturday: A passing shortwave will bring unsettled weather to the
region on Saturday. As this system moves through, it will interact
with lingering moisture and modest instability to trigger scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon over the higher
terrain in northeast WA and the ID Panhandle. Any storms that do
form could be capable of brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds and
lightning. While the overall coverage is expected to remain limited,
conditions will be monitored closely due to the holiday weekend.

Sunday through Wednesday: Following the exit of Saturday`s system, a
strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build into the region.
This will mark the beginning of another warming trend, with dry,
unstable conditions returning. Each day will increase in
temperatures, with Tuesday and Wednesday being the warmest days.
Ensembles are indicating that yet again we could see warmer
temperatures than the last heat wave. Temperatures in the high 90s
to 105 are expected as of this forecast, with the hottest
temperatures being down in the LC Valley and Columbia Basin. This
could bring the potential for widespread impacts from heat stress to
increased fire danger. Winds will begin to increase Wednesday
afternoon as another system begins to push in offshore. Overnight
temperatures will be warm was well, with most areas remaining in the
upper 50s to around 70. Keep an eye on the forecast as we get
closer. /KK

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period.
Winds will be breezy on Thursday across the Inland Northwest
with gusts up to 20 knots.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in conditions remaining VFR.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        55  82  58  82  55  88 /   0  20  20  10   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  56  82  56  79  56  86 /   0  20  30  10   0   0
Pullman        51  73  51  79  50  85 /   0  40  30   0   0   0
Lewiston       62  80  61  86  61  94 /   0  60  30   0   0   0
Colville       46  84  56  82  48  86 /   0  10  30  10   0   0
Sandpoint      51  81  55  77  51  83 /   0  10  50  20   0   0
Kellogg        58  77  54  75  57  83 /   0  30  40  20   0   0
Moses Lake     55  84  58  87  55  91 /   0  20  20   0   0   0
Wenatchee      60  86  62  88  61  91 /   0  10  20   0   0   0
Omak           56  88  59  87  57  91 /   0  10  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
ID...None.

&&

$$