610
FXUS66 KOTX 130642
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1142 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms expected through Tuesday, followed by a
brief lull around mid- week, before additional shower and
thunderstorm chances arrive heading into the end of the week. In
the near term, the focus for thunderstorms will be over the
Cascade and northern mountains, as well as over southeastern
Washington into the southern Panhandle tonight through Monday
night. Lightning from thunderstorms will be capable of starting
new fires. Daytime temperatures will begin the week slightly
warmer than normal but should drop to average or slightly below by
midweek.

&&

.UPDATE...
A quick update to remove the Flood Watch and Red Flag Warning that
were expired earlier in the evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday: The region will be under the influence
of a slow moving low. It will continue through Tuesday before
exiting and allowing a brief ridge of high pressure for Wednesday.
The main concern for for tonight and Tuesday will be isolated
convection over Northern Washington, Southeast Washington, and the
Idaho Panhandle. These areas have Cape values in the 400-700 J/kg
range. The North Washington storms will have a slow moving nature and
precipitable water values near an inch can lead to quick heavy
downpours and small chance of flash flooding. The Southeast
Washington and Idaho Panhandle storms will be drier in nature and
bring more of dry lightning, new fire start concern but confidence
is low. The thunderstorm threat will diminish by mid morning.
Winds will be breezy during the afternoon through the Cascades
Gaps with sustained in the teens and gusts near 25 MPH. By
Wednesday, a brief break in the weather activity is expected.
Highs will be in the 80s. Lows will be in the 50s. /JDC

Thursday through Sunday: After a lull in convective activity on
Wednesday, a shift to warm southwesterly flow will prompt a return
of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. A moist and unstable
atmosphere will keep us in an active pattern through the end of the
week and into the weekend. Temperatures are looking relatively
consistent during this time period in the 80s for most locations,
but highs may be cooler in areas that have abundant cloud cover or
are rained on. Showers and thunderstorms will recur each afternoon
and will generally be focused over the Cascade Crest and mountains
of the ID Panhandle, but the rest of the region has a 15 to 20
percent chance of showers as well. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Nocturnal thunderstorms
are expected to push northeast out of northeast Oregon Tuesday
morning. These storms may impact Lewiston (KLWS) after 12z. Models
have trended slower and further south but Pullman still carries a
small chance (10%) of a thunderstorm. Expecting another round of
weak thunderstorms in far north-central and north-east Washington
and north Idaho starting around 18-21z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence is high
for VFR conditions. Low confidence in nocturnal thunderstorms for
KPUW and KLWS.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70
percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  80  53  83  55  87 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  54  78  51  81  54  86 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Pullman        51  75  47  79  50  81 /  20  20   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       63  83  59  87  62  90 /  20  40   0   0   0  10
Colville       47  83  44  85  46  87 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      52  78  50  80  50  84 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        57  75  54  79  58  84 /  20  20  10   0   0  10
Moses Lake     56  84  52  86  55  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      62  85  61  86  63  88 /  10  10   0   0   0  10
Omak           61  89  58  90  60  92 /   0  20  10   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$