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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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610 FXUS66 KOTX 130642 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1142 PM PDT Mon Aug 12 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms expected through Tuesday, followed by a brief lull around mid- week, before additional shower and thunderstorm chances arrive heading into the end of the week. In the near term, the focus for thunderstorms will be over the Cascade and northern mountains, as well as over southeastern Washington into the southern Panhandle tonight through Monday night. Lightning from thunderstorms will be capable of starting new fires. Daytime temperatures will begin the week slightly warmer than normal but should drop to average or slightly below by midweek. && .UPDATE... A quick update to remove the Flood Watch and Red Flag Warning that were expired earlier in the evening. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Wednesday: The region will be under the influence of a slow moving low. It will continue through Tuesday before exiting and allowing a brief ridge of high pressure for Wednesday. The main concern for for tonight and Tuesday will be isolated convection over Northern Washington, Southeast Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle. These areas have Cape values in the 400-700 J/kg range. The North Washington storms will have a slow moving nature and precipitable water values near an inch can lead to quick heavy downpours and small chance of flash flooding. The Southeast Washington and Idaho Panhandle storms will be drier in nature and bring more of dry lightning, new fire start concern but confidence is low. The thunderstorm threat will diminish by mid morning. Winds will be breezy during the afternoon through the Cascades Gaps with sustained in the teens and gusts near 25 MPH. By Wednesday, a brief break in the weather activity is expected. Highs will be in the 80s. Lows will be in the 50s. /JDC Thursday through Sunday: After a lull in convective activity on Wednesday, a shift to warm southwesterly flow will prompt a return of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday. A moist and unstable atmosphere will keep us in an active pattern through the end of the week and into the weekend. Temperatures are looking relatively consistent during this time period in the 80s for most locations, but highs may be cooler in areas that have abundant cloud cover or are rained on. Showers and thunderstorms will recur each afternoon and will generally be focused over the Cascade Crest and mountains of the ID Panhandle, but the rest of the region has a 15 to 20 percent chance of showers as well. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Nocturnal thunderstorms are expected to push northeast out of northeast Oregon Tuesday morning. These storms may impact Lewiston (KLWS) after 12z. Models have trended slower and further south but Pullman still carries a small chance (10%) of a thunderstorm. Expecting another round of weak thunderstorms in far north-central and north-east Washington and north Idaho starting around 18-21z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence is high for VFR conditions. Low confidence in nocturnal thunderstorms for KPUW and KLWS. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 55 80 53 83 55 87 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 54 78 51 81 54 86 / 10 10 0 0 0 10 Pullman 51 75 47 79 50 81 / 20 20 0 0 0 10 Lewiston 63 83 59 87 62 90 / 20 40 0 0 0 10 Colville 47 83 44 85 46 87 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 52 78 50 80 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 57 75 54 79 58 84 / 20 20 10 0 0 10 Moses Lake 56 84 52 86 55 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 62 85 61 86 63 88 / 10 10 0 0 0 10 Omak 61 89 58 90 60 92 / 0 20 10 0 0 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$