328
FXUS66 KOTX 072236
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
336 PM PDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will peak on Tuesday in the upper 90s to 105.

- Dry conditions and increasing winds will bring critical fire
  weather conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. Red Flag Warnings
  have been issued from 1pm Tuesday to 8pm Wednesday.

- Wednesday will be windy regionwide with gusts 30 to 40 mph.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will continue with temperatures peaking Tuesday
before cooling back down Wednesday and Thursday. Increasing
winds combined with dry conditions Tuesday afternoon and
Wednesday will result in critical fire weather conditions.
After a brief mid-week cooldown, warm temperatures will return
Friday into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday: The hottest temperatures of the forecast period are
expected Tuesday with afternoon highs ranging from the upper 90s to
105. With the heat will come extremely dry conditions. Humidity
readings are expected to fall into the upper single digits
Tuesday afternoon and evening for many locations across the region.
In addition to the hot and dry conditions, a strengthening pressure
gradient across the Cascades will cause winds to pick up through the
day with the highest wind speeds anticipated between 5pm and 9pm
Tuesday through the Cascade gaps, in the western Columbia Basin, and
over the Waterville Plateau. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph and
gusts between 30 and 35 mph are in the forecast for locations
including Bridgeport, Hartline, Coulee City, and Waterville. The
combination of hot temperatures, dry conditions, and gusty winds
will bring elevated to critical fire weather conditions in which any
new or existing fires will spread rapidly. Winds will temporarily
decrease overnight Tuesday before ramping up further on Wednesday.

To add to the fire weather concerns, an area of instability to our
southeast Tuesday night will create potential for elevated
thunderstorms over the far southeastern corner of WA and lower ID
Panhandle. Uncertainty remains as to how far north the storms will
develop. Some models keep the storms well south of Lewiston, while
others indicate storms developing as far north as Pullman.
Regardless of where they develop, very little precipition is
expected with these storms, so any lightning will pose a threat of
starting new fires. New fire starts Tuesday night will be
particularly concerning with gusty winds and critical fire weather
conditions expected across much of the region on Wednesday.

Wednesday: As previously mentioned, Wednesday will be another
potentially impactful day on the fire weather side of things with a
dry cold front sweeping through the Inland Northwest, bringing
anomalously strong winds for this time of year. The period of
critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday will be more
widespread and will last over a longer duration than on Tuesday.
Winds out of the west-southwest will ramp up late Wednesday morning
through the Cascade gaps, across the Columbia Basin, in the Blue
Mountains, over the Palouse, and in the Spokane area with sustained
speeds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts of 30 to 40 mph. There is a 50
percent chance of gusts greater than 40 mph for the Cascade
ridgetops as well as locations just east of the Cascades including
Coulee City, Ephrata, Entiat, and Mattawa. Any new or existing fires
will likely spread rapidly, especially in Central WA where there has
not been a wetting rain (greater than 0.10 inches) in over 40 days.

With critical fire weather conditions in the forecast Tuesday and
Wednesday, Red Flag Warnings will be in effect from 1pm Tuesday to
8pm Wednesday for the Okanogan Valley, Cascade Foothills, Waterville
Plateau, Columbia Basin, Palouse, and Spokane.

Thursday through Sunday: Models are in good agreement on a shortwave
dropping into region on Thursday briefly cooling temperatures into
the low to mid 80s. Ridging redevelops Friday through the weekend,
sending temperatures back into the 90s. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High cirrus passing through, otherwise mostly clear
skies with VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. Winds will be
light and generally under 10 kts through 16-18Z Tuesday, then
winds will pick up with gusts 18-25 kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence
in VFR conditions through Tuesday afternoon. High confidence in
an increase in winds late Tuesday morning.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our
webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        60  97  62  89  58  82 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  60  95  62  87  59  78 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Pullman        57  94  59  85  54  77 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       66 104  70  95  66  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       52  95  53  87  47  81 /   0   0   0  10  10  20
Sandpoint      54  92  57  83  56  75 /   0   0   0  10  20  30
Kellogg        64  92  64  85  60  74 /   0   0   0   0  10  20
Moses Lake     61 101  64  91  59  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      68  99  69  86  64  85 /   0   0   0   0  10   0
Omak           61  99  64  88  57  86 /   0   0   0  10  10  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower
     Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan
     Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee
     Area.
     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for
     Eastern Columbia Basin  -Palouse  -Spokane Area (Zone
     708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-
     Lower Palouse  -Snake River (Zone 709)-Okanogan Valley
     (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia
     Basin (Zone 707).
ID...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Lewis and
 Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

&&

$$