Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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258 FXUS66 KOTX 150508 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1008 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Monday won`t be quite as hot as it was over the weekend, but high temperatures will still be eight to ten degrees above average. There will be a 10 to 15 percent chance of dry thunderstorms on Wednesday with the arrival of an upper level disturbance. Widespread upper 90s and triple digit temperatures are likely Wednesday through the weekend as our hot July continues. && .DISCUSSION... Today`s weak push of slightly cooler air from west of the Cascades will result in Monday`s high temperatures being 3 to 6 degrees lower than Sunday. It will still be well above average with highs mainly in the 90s. The National Blend of Models (NBM) is forecasting a high of 99 for Lewiston Monday which would bring the string of eight consecutive days of triple digits to an end. However, the NBM keeps Omak`s string of triple digits days going with a high of 101 Monday. If that verifies, it will be Omak`s 9th day or 100 or more. The Pioneer Fire on the north end of Lake Chelan became quite active this afternoon sending a plume of thick smoke across north central Washington by sunset. Simulations from the HRRR pushes some smoke from the Pioneer Fire across the Waterville Plateau into the Columbia Basin and West Plains overnight into Monday morning. Smoke concentrations will be the most significant in the Methow and along the Columbia River between Brewster and Wenatchee. /GKoch && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Local reductions in visibility are possible near and downwind of Lake Chelan due to smoke from the Pioneer Fire. Breezy winds will occur Monday afternoon with the strongest winds in the lee of the Cascades. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 64 93 60 97 65 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Coeur d`Alene 61 90 59 93 65 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 58 88 50 93 57 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Lewiston 68 99 66 103 72 106 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Colville 54 92 53 95 57 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Sandpoint 57 88 52 94 56 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Kellogg 64 87 62 92 68 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 60 98 61 100 66 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Wenatchee 68 97 68 100 73 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Omak 65 101 65 102 70 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Central Panhandle Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle. WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area- Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley- Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County. && $$