823
FXUS62 KMLB 070704
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
304 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...A high risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents
continues for the Volusia, Brevard, Indian River coastline...

...Above-normal temperatures continue into early next week...

...Chances for showers and lightning storms increase early next
week...

Current-Tonight...Mostly dry over land with ISOLD shower activity
across the local coastal waters early this morning. Warm and
muggy temperatures continue. A rather weak pressure pattern also
continues across the region. Ridging aloft resides across the area
with very warm H500 temps (-3.0C to -5.0C). PWAT values will see
modest improvement (1.50-1.70 inches) thru sunrise, with
conditions continuing to moisten (1.75-2.00 inches) thru the
remainder of the day (sunset). Light/variable to calm morning
winds will transition onshore, once again, 5-10 kts as the ECSB
moves inland fairly quickly during the day.

Not overly comfortable with my 20-30pct PoPs along the immediate
coast today (likely still too high!), with increasing chances inland
30-50pct this afternoon/early evening due to boundary collisions.
The warm conditions aloft remaining the main culprit for keeping
PoPs low. Primary storm threats remain occasional to frequent
lightning strikes, brief gusty winds of 35 to 45 mph locally, and
torrential downpours which could cause minor/nuisance flooding
concerns. A sea breeze collision will occur (well inland) near the
Lake/Orange County border by early this evening. Convection
should diminish in the early-mid evening (or push west of our
western counties). Expect mostly dry conditions overnight with
PCloudy skies and light winds that will gradually become offshore.

Temperatures will remain hot with conditions muggy. Afternoon
maxes forecast near 90F to L90s near the coast and L-M90s inland.
Can`t rule out an U90 degree reading or two well inland. Peak
afternoon heat indices forecast 102-107F, and will NOT issue a
Heat Advisory as we have been staying under criteria (>= 108F),
however conditions still dictate that if outdoors, plan to take
frequent breaks in air conditioning or shaded areas, stay well-
hydrated, and know the signs of heat stress. This level of heat
can still affect anyone without adequate cooling and hydration.
Overnight mins remain warm and sultry and in the 70s.

A High Risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents is
forecast, again, today for beaches along the Volusia, Brevard, and
Indian River coastline. Here, entering the water is strongly
discouraged! A Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents remains in
effect for St. Lucie and Martin County beaches.

Mon-Tue...A non-tropical mid/upper level low pressure off of the
Carolina coast is forecast to slowly drift southeastward towards
the northern Bahamas and southern FL peninsula while on a gradual
weakening trend. H500 temps still warm at -4.5C to -6.0C. Moisture
(PWATs) continues to surge above 2 inches across much of the
coverage warning area. At the surface, winds transition to light
offshore, though we will still see development of the ECSB, but it
may not push past (or too far past) the coastal counties. As
such, late day boundary collisions will favor the eastern
peninsula each day. A light offshore storm steering component
develops on Mon, with this offshore flow increasing into Tue.
Keeping 60pct areawide on both days.

Very warm temperatures persist on Mon, with highs in the L-M90s and
maxes coming in a little cooler for Tue in the U80s to L90s. This
may be the result of increased cloudiness. The heat risk continues
to be a concern into at least Mon, with peak heat indices a bit
higher with increased humidity (105-110F) and a Heat Advisory may
be necessary. Heat indices coming in slightly cooler for Tue at
101-106F areawide. Overnight lows consistent in the 70s.

Wed-Sat...Conditions aloft remain a bit unsettled with troughiness
and PWATs remaining around 2 inches. An offshore wind component
develops by mid-week, reverting back to onshore again late in the
period. Daily sea breezes (Thu-Sat) with initial inherited
offshore steering flow, weakening and becoming more variable.
Keeping PoPs around 60pct areawide each afternoon/evening. Highs
in the U80s to L90s each day, with clouds and onset/extent of
inland moving sea breezes the deciding factor in the lower end of
high max potential. Lows continue mainly in the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Generally favorable boating conditions continue into the middle
of next week, outside of increasing shower/lightning storm
activity; offshore moving Mon-Wed. Seas mainly 2-3 ft and perhaps
a little higher invof lightning storms next week. The pressure
gradient will remain fairly weak supporting a daily sea breeze
thru Tue. Light offshore winds will develop each evening and
overnight, becoming more prevailing into mid-week, and continue
to keep wind speeds during the period AOB 15 kts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR is forecast outside of storms. A slightly stronger ECSB compared
to the WCSB will result in the greatest chance for scat`d showers/storms
over the W interior. VCTS begins at 20Z for inland sites with TEMPO
TSRA from 21-23Z at KLEE and mostly dry weather at coastal sites. VCTS
may need to be added later at KSUA if confidence increases. Light
and variable winds increase from the ESE in the afternoon at 5-10kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  77  94  77 /  30  20  60  30
MCO  96  77  94  78 /  50  30  60  30
MLB  93  77  93  77 /  20  20  60  40
VRB  93  77  93  75 /  30  20  60  40
LEE  96  78  94  78 /  50  30  60  30
SFB  96  77  94  78 /  40  20  60  30
ORL  96  79  94  78 /  50  30  60  30
FPR  93  77  94  75 /  30  20  60  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Fehling