532
FXUS64 KLZK 140546
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1246 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Latest observations indicate the remaining cells that combined to
form a linear MCS are now moving into northeast portions of the
forecast area. This activity will move east of the CWA by 2130z.

CAM guidance suggests a similar MCS type event will form overnight,
but will start slightly east of where the activity of last night
formed.  Northeast sections of the forecast area will have the
highest probability of experiencing this convection.

Conditions promoting high heat stress will continue through this
period. Appropriate headlines are in effect.  Additional headlines
may be required for Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

H500 ridging is expected to dominate the pattern through much of the
long term portion of the forecast, as it should extend from the SW US
eastward toward the Gulf Coast. With sfc ridging expected across the
SE through much of the period, S-SW low level flow will keep a
steady stream of moist air in place across the state. This
combination will lead to a period of above normal temperatures as
well as dangerous heat indices. Heat headlines are likely nearly
every day for at least some parts of the state.

While the forecast looks largely dry in nature, a slow moving mid-
level low will work its way around the periphery of the ridge toward
the eastern US. As ridging across the SW builds north, this will
provide a persistent H500 NW flow setup across the middle of the
country. Arkansas will be on the edge of this setup which will lead
to occasional chances for showers and storms, especially across
northern and eastern parts of the state where remnant MCSs could
pass through the mean flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024

VFR flight categories are anticipated across all sites with the
exception of Nrn terminals, KHRO and KBPK, where lowered CIGS to
MVFR and IFR are expected early Wednesday morning. SHRA/TSRA will
be possible at or near KHRO and KBPK early Wednesday morning with
an outflow boundary possible that could spur some VCSH/VCTS across
the Cntrl terminal of KLIT near sunrise Wednesday morning. Erly
winds of less than 10 kts are expected during the day on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     90  73  95  75 /  30   0  10  10
Camden AR         98  75  99  75 /  10   0  10   0
Harrison AR       91  72  94  74 /  20   0  10  20
Hot Springs AR    97  75 100  75 /  10   0   0   0
Little Rock   AR  95  78  99  78 /  20   0   0   0
Monticello AR     97  78  99  78 /  20  10  10  10
Mount Ida AR      98  73  99  73 /  10   0   0  10
Mountain Home AR  90  72  94  73 /  40  10  10  30
Newport AR        91  72  96  75 /  40   0  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     96  75  99  76 /  20   0  10  10
Russellville AR   96  74  99  75 /  10   0   0  10
Searcy AR         93  74  97  75 /  30   0  10  10
Stuttgart AR      93  75  97  77 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
ARZ031-032-039-042>044-052>056-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140-
141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...70/74