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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR
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532 FXUS64 KLZK 140546 AFDLZK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Little Rock AR 1246 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 Latest observations indicate the remaining cells that combined to form a linear MCS are now moving into northeast portions of the forecast area. This activity will move east of the CWA by 2130z. CAM guidance suggests a similar MCS type event will form overnight, but will start slightly east of where the activity of last night formed. Northeast sections of the forecast area will have the highest probability of experiencing this convection. Conditions promoting high heat stress will continue through this period. Appropriate headlines are in effect. Additional headlines may be required for Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024 H500 ridging is expected to dominate the pattern through much of the long term portion of the forecast, as it should extend from the SW US eastward toward the Gulf Coast. With sfc ridging expected across the SE through much of the period, S-SW low level flow will keep a steady stream of moist air in place across the state. This combination will lead to a period of above normal temperatures as well as dangerous heat indices. Heat headlines are likely nearly every day for at least some parts of the state. While the forecast looks largely dry in nature, a slow moving mid- level low will work its way around the periphery of the ridge toward the eastern US. As ridging across the SW builds north, this will provide a persistent H500 NW flow setup across the middle of the country. Arkansas will be on the edge of this setup which will lead to occasional chances for showers and storms, especially across northern and eastern parts of the state where remnant MCSs could pass through the mean flow. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Aug 14 2024 VFR flight categories are anticipated across all sites with the exception of Nrn terminals, KHRO and KBPK, where lowered CIGS to MVFR and IFR are expected early Wednesday morning. SHRA/TSRA will be possible at or near KHRO and KBPK early Wednesday morning with an outflow boundary possible that could spur some VCSH/VCTS across the Cntrl terminal of KLIT near sunrise Wednesday morning. Erly winds of less than 10 kts are expected during the day on Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 90 73 95 75 / 30 0 10 10 Camden AR 98 75 99 75 / 10 0 10 0 Harrison AR 91 72 94 74 / 20 0 10 20 Hot Springs AR 97 75 100 75 / 10 0 0 0 Little Rock AR 95 78 99 78 / 20 0 0 0 Monticello AR 97 78 99 78 / 20 10 10 10 Mount Ida AR 98 73 99 73 / 10 0 0 10 Mountain Home AR 90 72 94 73 / 40 10 10 30 Newport AR 91 72 96 75 / 40 0 10 10 Pine Bluff AR 96 75 99 76 / 20 0 10 10 Russellville AR 96 74 99 75 / 10 0 0 10 Searcy AR 93 74 97 75 / 30 0 10 10 Stuttgart AR 93 75 97 77 / 20 0 10 10 && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ031-032-039-042>044-052>056-062>069-121-122-130-137-138-140- 141-230-237-238-240-241-340-341. && $$ SHORT TERM...55 LONG TERM....67 AVIATION...70/74