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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
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900 FXUS63 KAPX 150355 AFDAPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1155 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and storm chances early Monday morning and afternoon - Shower/thunderstorm chances Monday evening and Monday night. A few strong storms will be possible, with the primary hazards of damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. - Cooler, less humid weather Tuesday through the end of the week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 958 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Typical summertime pattern in place...broad ridging and largely capped environment across the central US with hot and humid weather through the Midwest filtering NE-ward on return flow to aid in convective development along the perimeter of the ridge, particularly when aided by various small perturbations in the upper flow. One of these perturbations is to our north, scraping Lake Superior, though better defined vort max is yet just upstream. Cold front extends down from the former perturbation over central Ontario...with additional energy over MN/WI leading to a surface low over IA...and convection developing over southern WI/northern IL. The Lake Superior niblet, combined with some afternoon lake breeze generation and a bit of weak surface troughing, has allowed for convective activity over the UP through this evening...though this is slowly starting to drift south/southeastward as of 0z. Primary concern for the evening will be monitoring the upstream convection, both to our north and southwest. Environment over northern Lower this evening, per 0z sounding, still appears favorably unstable (at least till we lose diurnal heating)...though do think incoming convection will have to contend with the marine boundary layer, which we`ll start to see shortly as it approaches the northern end of Green Bay...though if it holds together and stays on course...it`d reach northern Lower`s shores sometime around midnight. Beyond this...will assess fog potential for tonight, given the abundant moisture around (esp in the form of low-level moisture over the UP where it`s been raining today) as well as weak flow overall...and potential for convective complex over southern WI to try to hold together across the lake tonight into the morning. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Pattern Synopsis and Forecast: A stronger upper level ridge remains anchored over the central Rockies through the short term period. West winds aloft will set up over the north side of the ridge and reach into the Great Lakes region. Surface observations depict a wet and warm air mass has settled in over MI with surface dewpoints in the high 60s and even some sites in the low 70s. Paired with temperatuers in the low 80s, heat indices are reaching into the mid to high 80s and low 90s for a few sites. Skies do have some bubbling CU around, with even some higher clouds moving overhead, however surface temperatures are still able to warm. A lake breeze boundary is currently forming over the eastern U.P. and will aid in storm chances later this afternoon and evening. A favorable environment does exist for isolated to scattered discrete convection along any boundary that can help it initiate this afternoon into late evening. Isolated storm chances will linger overnight over northern lower as a stronger complex of storms will likely move over south/central MI. Patchy fog and haze could be seen along the northern Lk Michigan coast early Monday morning, however skies should clear throughout the mid morning hours. More chances for isolated storms Monday afternoon as temperatuers warm in a humid airmass. Heat indices could reach into the low to mid 90s for northern lower in the afternoon hours. Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages: Uncertainty is high with Monday`s forecast for thunderstorms. Exactly when and where storms will occur is up for debate as it is highly dependent on convection upstream over WI/MN. Reflection of this high uncertainty can be seen in CAMs, which output different footprints of storms at different times almost each run. What we do know, is that the environment is capable of producing storms that can organize and dump heavy rainfall as well as some gusty outflow/downburst winds tonight into Monday afternoon. Chances for these hazards to be severe increase as we move into Monday afternoon. At this time, the most likely scenario is that an MCS will form over SE WI later this afternoon and reaching SW MI overnight. Remnant moisture and local boundary interactions could help a few storms near M-55 early Monday morning with hazards likely remaining sub-severe. With skies clearing Monday morning, storms will be possible along the Lk breeze boundaries however chances are low. The complex of storms moving to our south could stabilize the air upstream, resulting in temperatures near the surface slightly cooler and more dry that the forecast. This would lead to less chances for afternoon showers and storms Monday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 306 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Pattern Synopsis: Longwave troughing looks to pivot over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the majority of the upcoming work week. A shortwave rotating around the base of said troughing will punch over the Great Lakes Monday night, providing favorable support aloft for a surface cyclone that is expected to trek across the northern Great Lakes into Quebec Monday night into Tuesday, sweeping an attendant cold front across the region during that timeframe. Surface high pressure then looks to build across much of the north-central CONUS through the second half of the week as expansive ridging folds eastward across the continent. Forecast Details: Showers/storm chances Monday evening/night -- Relatively high uncertainty remains in the evolution of shower/storm chances across northern Michigan beginning Monday evening as much depends on potential multiple rounds of convection further upstream tonight and Monday -- specifically the potential for a severe MCS to track across parts of the Midwest on the other side of Lake Michigan in the Monday afternoon/evening timeframe. Current confidence is that any potential MCS to our west/southwest will still leave a window for convective initiation along the cold front towards the start of the period. Even greater uncertainty lies in the southwestern extent of convective initiation along the cold front, but the best chances for showers and storms Monday evening into Monday night appear to be across the eastern U.P. and Tip of the Mitt -- further away from the negative influence of the potential MCS and in closer proximity favorable upper-level support from the shortwave and low-level forcing near the cyclone center. The primary hazards with any strong storms Monday evening into Monday night will be damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. MUCAPE around 1,000 J/kg and deep-layer shear near 40 kts in place ahead of the boundary will support organized storms, and an expected quick evolution to a linear storm mode would make damaging winds more likely. Hail will also be possible, but chances for severe hail are limited due to aforementioned storm mode and relatively warm temperatures/meager lapse rates aloft creating less favorable buoyancy through the hail growth layer. PWATs around 1.6-1.8" in place will also support efficient rain processes, bringing the potential for torrential rainfall underneath any strong storms that may lead to localized ponding on roadways and briefly impact driving conditions. Cooler, less humid weather ahead -- After the cold front swings across the state Monday night, cooler temperatures and less humid air will follow behind through the rest of the work week. Highs primarily in the 70s are anticipated Tuesday through Friday. While a few showers may linger near Saginaw Bay Tuesday, the next main chances for rain and potentially a few storms will be on Wednesday. Otherwise, the second half of the week is currently expected to stay rain-free as high pressure builds into the Great Lakes. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1155 PM EDT Sun Jul 14 2024 Still expecting at fog development tonight with nebulous surface winds. Signals strongest for LIFR at CIU/PLN...do have most other sites going down to at least IFR...though TVC may remain MVFR through the night. Blowoff from Chicagoland storms overspreading southern zones (MBL/TVC) which could hinder better fog development...and not impossible some activity tries to develop toward central MI (along/south of MBL to APN) toward morning. Watch for pop-up showers/storms Monday afternoon, esp after 17z...though this may focus inland away from TAF sites...but do carry VCSH/VCTS for the afternoon hours. Primary cold front approaches after 0z Tuesday, which could bring a round of showers/storms again toward the end of the taf period. Expecting SW winds to pick up ahead of this between 21z Monday - 6z Tuesday, starting earliest at TVC/MBL. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ UPDATE...FEF SHORT TERM...ELD LONG TERM...DJC AVIATION...FEF