778
FXUS61 KPBZ 080604
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
204 AM EDT Mon Jul 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue into Monday before active weather
returns midweek, associated with a passing trough and the
remnants of Beryl.

Monday through Wednesday will be the hottest days of the week
with widespread 90s outside of the mountains.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry conditions, with temperatures a bit above seasonal norms.
- Patchy fog potential towards morning.

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High pressure will remain in the region for another day. With
sufficient low level moisture, light wind, and mostly clear
skies, early morning fog development could occur through dawn
but will likely be isolated. Low temperatures will end up just
a touch above seasonal norms.

Heading into the day, the ridge over the Atlantic will shift a
bit allowing moisture influx from the southwest in conjunction
with a weak wave crossing the Middle Atlantic region. This will
highlight the potential for Tucker and Preston County to see a
few showers or storms this afternoon. Otherwise, above normal
temperatures, dry conditions, and light winds will highlight a
day with temps in the 90s and heat index values crossing 95 in
some locations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Unsettled weather returns Tuesday through Wednesday night.

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Ensemble consensus continues to favor an Upper Midwest trough
passing through the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday
morning along with a weak surface trough. Moist advection ahead
of the wave is likely to foster a warm, humid environment
translating to likely showers and thunderstorms ahead of the
feature. Environmental conditions remain varied, but with
ensemble means showing near 90F highs and 70F dewpoints, there
appears to be at least a low probability for flash flood risk
and potential other severe hazards. Latest CSU machine learning
output supports this.

Variations become post-shortwave passage depending on high
pressure strength to the north as well as potential pattern
impact from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl. The trend currently
is, the core of the tropical low to lift north into the Great
Lakes by Wednesday. This will likely lead to the main rainfall
threat on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Uncertainty remains in the extended with the exit of the
  trough.

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The main takeaways for the long range period is that 500mb mean
heights suggest a continuation of near to above normal
temperature and precipitation chances tied to shortwave
movement. Trends are difficult to pin down at this time and low
confidence is the take away as the ridge off the coast keeps the
trough and merged remnants of Beryl over the Mid Atlantic a bit
longer keeping low chance pops in the forecast for Thursday
through Saturday. Otherwise, high pressure would keep the area
dry to end the period on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Confidence is high (above 90%) that VFR conditions will prevail
through the forecast period under high pressure. Wind will be
light and variable. Scattered Cu between 4-6kft is likely to
redevelop with diurnal heating.

.Outlook...
VFR continues into Tuesday morning. Isolated thunderstorms
could return to terminals west of PIT Tuesday as the ridge
breaks down.

Impacts from the remnants of Beryl could occur Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...88
NEAR TERM...CL/Shallenberger
SHORT TERM...Shallenberger/88
LONG TERM...Shallenberger
AVIATION...Rackley