Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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575 FXUS66 KOTX 080451 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 951 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot temperatures will continue through the upcoming week. The hottest days will be Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread triple digit heat. Breezy to gusty winds return Wednesday with increasing fire weather concerns. && .DISCUSSION... Evening update: A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the East Slopes of the Central and Northern Cascades from noon Monday to 11 PM Tuesday for hot, dry, and unstable conditions. Steep temperature lapse rates will promote plume dominated fire growth, especially on Tuesday with any new or existing fires. JW && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: Clear skies and terrain driven winds at near 10 kts or less will continue through 06z Tuesday. The Pioneer Fire along Lake Chelan will continue to produce an abundance of smoke, which is likely to continue to impact visibilities downlake into Chelan during the overnight and morning hours. Otherwise surface visibility will remain VFR for all TAF sites, with high level smoke indicated as FEW200 for each TAF forecast. JW FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions except near Lake Chelan from wildfire smoke. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 PM PDT Sun Jul 7 2024/ Rest of today through Wednesday: An unusually strong and persistent ridge of high pressure will continue to bring hot and dry conditions across the Inland Northwest. The hottest days will be on Tuesday and Wednesday with afternoon temperatures ranging from 100 to 110 degrees regionwide. Winds will be light to start off the week, but will pick up once the ridge begins to flatten late in the day on Wednesday. After several very hot days and with dry air still in place, rapid fire spread will be a concern once those winds start to increase. The Cascade gaps and western Columbia Basin will see the strongest winds, but the rest of the region will experience a noticeable increase in winds as well. Uncertainty remains as to how strong exactly the winds will be. They may or may not meet the criteria for issuing fire weather highlights. With such warm temperatures and high mixing heights, we`ll see quite a jump in the amount of smoke generated by the Pioneer Fire south of Stehekin. This will likely result in poor air quality for the Lake Chelan area. Each night, the smoke will settle in the lake basin and drift down toward Manson. During the day, the smoke will shift back toward the north end of the lake. There is a chance the smoke will seep over into the Methow Valley as well. The latest air quality readings and smoke outlooks can be found at fire.airnow.gov. Wednesday night through Saturday: Our stretch of hot and dry weather will last through at least next weekend, though the second half of the week won`t be quite as hot as the first. High temperatures will cool 5 to 10 degrees from Wednesday to Thursday, putting most locations in the 90s. The deeper Columbia Basin, Okanogan Valley, and L-C Valley may still see a few readings in the 100s. Low temperatures will be cooler as well, dropping back into the 50s and 60s by Thursday night. The "cooldown" may not last long though. Most models are showing temperatures rebounding Friday into next weekend. /Fewkes ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 64 100 67 103 69 104 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 63 95 66 99 67 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 60 95 64 100 66 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 69 104 72 109 74 109 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 56 97 59 101 61 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 58 92 61 97 61 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 65 93 69 97 70 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 64 103 67 107 69 107 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 70 104 74 107 75 103 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 67 105 70 108 71 107 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle. Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area. WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Northeast Mountains- Okanogan Highlands-Western Chelan County. Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area- Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau- Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning from noon Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698). && $$