733
FXUS66 KOTX 100437
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
937 PM PDT Tue Jul 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot temperatures will continue through the upcoming week. The
hottest days will be today and Wednesday with widespread triple
digit heat. Breezy to gusty winds return Wednesday with increasing
fire weather concerns. Slightly cooler temperatures arrive
Thursday and Friday, before warming up again this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...ONGOING HEAT WAVE DELIVERING NEAR-RECORD HEAT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
...INCREASED FIRE WEATHER DANGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

Key messages for the rest of the week:

- Very hot temperatures are here and will continue through Wednesday.
- Temperatures cool by 5 to 10 degrees Thursday then warm again heading
  into the weekend.
- No precipitation is in sight.

Rest of today through Wednesday: An unusually strong and
persistent ridge of high pressure will continue to bring hot and
dry conditions across the Inland Northwest. Today was the first
day of the highest temperatures we`ll see with the heat wave.
Tomorrow will be the second and final day of peak heating with
afternoon temperatures ranging from 100 to 110 degrees regionwide.
Low temperatures will cool into the 50s and low 60s in the
northern mountain valleys, but will struggle to cool below the
upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere. With temperatures this high during
the daytime and minimal relief overnight, it is advised to take
the heat seriously and follow precautions to avoid heat stress.
This includes taking breaks often, staying hydrated, and accessing
air conditioned areas when possible. Be sure to check in on your
furry friends, elders, and others sensitive to heat.

As for fire weather, Red Flag Warnings are currently in effect for
the Cascades and Pioneer Fire. Rapid fire growth is likely given the
hot temperatures, poor overnight RH recoveries, and unstable weather
conditions. In addition, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the
Cascades and Central WA Wednesday afternoon and evening. Winds will
be light through tonight, but will pick up once the ridge begins to
break down late in the day on Wednesday. After several very hot days
and with dry air still in place, any wind will be a concern and
could allow new and existing fires to spread quickly. Central WA
will see the strongest winds with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph
and gusts up to 30 mph, but the rest of the region will experience a
noticeable increase in winds as well. Breezy winds will recur each
afternoon through the end of the week.

With such warm temperatures and high mixing heights, we`ll see quite
a jump in the amount of smoke generated by the Pioneer Fire south of
Stehekin beginning late this afternoon. This will likely result in
poor air quality for the Lake Chelan area. Each night, the smoke
will settle in the lake basin and drift down toward Manson. During
the day, the smoke will shift back toward the north end of the lake.
There is a chance the smoke will seep over into the Methow Valley as
well. The latest air quality readings and smoke outlooks can be
found at fire.airnow.gov.

Wednesday night through Monday: Our stretch of hot and dry weather
will stick around for the foreseeable future, though the heat won`t
be quite as extreme after Wednesday. High temperatures will cool 5
to 10 degrees from Wednesday to Thursday, putting most locations in
the 90s. The deeper Columbia Basin, Okanogan Valley, and L-C Valley
may still see a few thermometer readings in the 100s. Low
temperatures will be cooler as well, dropping back into the 50s and
60s by Thursday night. Models are suggesting weak ridging building
back in heading into the weekend and early next week, which would
allow a slight rebound in temperatures back into the upper 90s to
just over 100. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Local reductions in
visibility possible near and downwind of Lake Chelan due to smoke
from the Pioneer Fire. Breezy to gusty westerly winds expected
after 18Z Wednesday, particularly at KEAT and KMWH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in
VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        68 103  67  96  62  97 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  68 100  67  93  59  96 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        64  99  64  91  58  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       74 109  72 101  68 104 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       60 101  58  96  55  96 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      64  97  62  92  55  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        71  98  69  91  65  94 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     69 107  65  99  60 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      74 103  68  98  67 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           71 107  66 101  65 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Coeur
     d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce
     Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Northeast Mountains-
     Okanogan Highlands-Western Chelan County.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM PDT Wednesday for Central
     Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake
     Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-
     Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-
     Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.

     Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for East
     Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan
     National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central
     Cascades (Zone 696)-Foothills of Central Washington
     Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan
     Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western
     Columbia Basin (Zone 707).

     Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for East Portion
     of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National
     Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades
     (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698).

&&

$$