999
FXUS66 KOTX 142243
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
343 PM PDT Sun Jul 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

While the extreme heat has eased, it will stay hot, dry and
locally breezy through next week. Areas of haze and smoke will
linger over the Inland NW from local fires. Temperatures will
rebound for the second half of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through next Saturday:

Key points:

- Heat will continue across the Inland Northwest through the week
and into next weekend.

- We are monitoring the threat for dry thunderstorms across the
region mid-week.

Temperatures will stay 5 to 15 degrees above normal for at least the
next seven days. A Heat Advisory is in effect over a large portion
of the region until 10 PM tonight with temperatures nearing 100
degrees in many locations this afternoon. Overnight lows will be
rather warm as well with some locations struggling to cool below the
upper 60s. In addition to the Heat Advisory, a Red Flag Warning is
in effect through 9 PM tonight for the Cascade gaps around Wenatchee
and into the western Columbia Basin due to a combination of very low
relative humidity values (in the teens) and breezy winds. Winds will
calm down overnight and we`ll remain in a westerly zonal flow regime
through the day tomorrow, then a ridge will begin to build over us
on Tuesday.

Tomorrow will be the coolest day of the forecast, featuring
temperatures 2 to 5 degrees cooler than today`s, though "cool"
doesn`t feel like an appropriate descriptor when temperatures are
still expected to be in the mid to upper 90s. Once ridging rebuilds
on Tuesday, we`ll jump right back up into the upper 90s with a few
of our hottest locations over 100 degrees (i.e., Lewiston,
Wenatchee, Omak, and the deeper Columbia Basin). After this jump on
Tuesday, temperatures will stay put in the upper 90s to just over
100 for the remainder of the week and into next weekend.

Smoke from the Pioneer Fire near Lake Chelan and several fires down
in Oregon will continue to be blown eastward, resulting in hazy
skies for Eastern WA and the ID Panhandle. The good news (unless you
live around Lake Chelan) is that the smoke will stay mostly
elevated, so degradation of air quality isn`t expected to be an
issue except for right around the Lake Chelan area. You can find the
latest air quality readings and smoke outlooks at fire.airnow.gov.

Speaking of fire and smoke, we are keeping a close eye on what is
looking like a concerning fire weather pattern expected on
Wednesday. Models are showing a shortwave trough off the coast of
California ejecting northeastward into Oregon and Washington,
bringing elevated moisture and instability. Current guidance is
giving the Inland Northwest a 10 to 20 percent chance of
thunderstorms on Wednesday. After our extended period of hot and dry
weather, fuels will be especially susceptible to ignition, so any
lightning we get could cause problems. More on that as it gets
closer. /Fewkes

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail. Local reductions in
visibility are possible near and downwind of Lake Chelan due to
smoke from the Pioneer Fire. Breezy winds will continue across
the region this afternoon and evening with the strongest winds in
the lee of the Cascades.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in
VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        64  93  61  97  63 100 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Coeur d`Alene  61  90  59  93  61  97 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        58  88  56  93  59  97 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Lewiston       68  99  66 103  69 106 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Colville       54  93  53  95  54  97 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Sandpoint      57  88  54  93  55  95 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Kellogg        64  87  63  92  66  97 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     60  98  61 100  64 102 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Wenatchee      68  98  68 100  74 102 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           65 101  65 102  66 102 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Central Panhandle
     Mountains-Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and
     Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area-Northern
     Panhandle.

WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Central Chelan
     County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-
     Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-
     Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.

     Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Foothills of
     Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse  -
     Snake River (Zone 709)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-
     Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707).

&&

$$