Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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404 FXUS66 KOTX 032231 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 331 PM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Mountain showers, seasonal temperatures, and breezy winds will be in place over North Idaho for tonight. Confidence is increasing in a substantial long duration heatwave starting after July 4th. It is expected to last through midweek. && .DISCUSSION... ...Extended period of very hot and dry conditions starting Saturday... Tonight: The Inland Northwest will be under the influence of an exiting trough and strengthening ridge for the period. Any shower and thunderstorm activity will generally be over North Idaho. The main impact from the thunderstorms will be lightning and brief heavy rain. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s and 50s. Thursday through Wednesday: The region will be under a strengthening ridge for the period. It will usher in several days of hot, dry conditions. Winds will generally be light with mild increases from the afternoon mixing. Gusts will stay below 20 MPH. The main concern is the prolonged dry, warming period for most of the region. Temperatures will steadily climb through the weekend and start of next week. The highs are expected in the upper 80s and 90s. Areas of the Basin will see several days of triple digits starting Saturday and lasting through Tuesday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s to low 70s. Ensembles begin to shift the ridge axis east and bring a southwest flow pattern into the region. It will increase the moisture amount in the air. This will lead to gradual decline from the extreme high temperature period. Ensembles are not bringing much decline though. Wednesday is still expected to have temperatures as warm has Tuesday. /JDC && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected for the TAF sites for the period. Convection is possible over North Idaho during the afternoon and early evening with lightning probability of 10-20%. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 55 88 58 93 61 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 54 84 56 88 60 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 52 84 54 89 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 61 94 63 98 66 102 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 47 85 50 90 53 92 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 50 82 50 87 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 56 80 59 86 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 56 93 59 99 63 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 60 92 65 99 68 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 58 93 60 98 63 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle. Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area. WA...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands. Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County. Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for Western Chelan County. && $$