Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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478 FXUS66 KOTX 052318 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 418 PM PDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Weather conditions are expected to be hot and dry the next seven days. Central Washington will experience critical fire weather conditions into this evening. There will be a long duration heatwave beginning today and lasting through late next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday: Our upper-level ridge is well-established offshore, bringing another day of clear skies, dry conditions, and temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s. If you`ve been following the forecast over the past few days, not much has changed. Critical fire weather conditions will be a concern into this evening due to gusty winds through the Cascade gaps in combination with low relative humidity values in the teens and 20s. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Wenatchee area and the Waterville Plateau from 4 PM to 10 PM tonight. We`ll remain under the influence of the ridge through this weekend and nearly all of next week. Afternoon high temperatures will climb by 2 to 4 degrees each day, and by Monday many locations will see triple digits for the first time this season. Low temperatures will struggle to drop below the mid 60s, providing little relief overnight. Models are locking in on Wednesday as the hottest day. The forecasted high temperature for Spokane International Airport is 104 degrees. Some of the highest temperatures that day will be in Omak and Grand Coulee with a forecast of 109 degrees, and in Lewiston and Desert Aire where the forecast calls for a sweltering 111 degrees. A subtle "cooldown" will take place toward the end of next week as the ridge axis ever so slowly moves eastward into Montana. Temperatures will drop back down into the upper 90s. Typically ridges that build in from the west such as this one move through much more quickly, so it`s quite unusual to see a heat wave persist over such an extended period of time. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: Smoke at the Pioneer Fire on the north end of Lake Chelan has become more active. As the night time inversion sets up, drainage winds are expected to push smoke down the lake toward Chelan and onto the Waterville Plateau each evening the next several days. A band of hazy conditions is forecast for the Waterville Plateau to Ritzville and then up to Spokane. Do have mention of haze for GEG, but not expecting large visibility issues. A weak dry cold front will bring a push of stronger winds down the east slopes of the Cascades through 08z. Gusts up to 30 mph will be possible at Wenatchee, Chelan, Entiat, and on the Waterville Plateau. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. Low confidence for localized visibility reductions due to smoke. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 64 92 64 96 64 100 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 62 87 63 91 64 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 59 87 60 93 61 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 68 97 69 101 69 104 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 55 89 56 94 57 98 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 57 85 57 89 57 93 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 63 84 64 89 65 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 65 98 67 101 66 104 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 70 97 71 100 71 104 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 65 97 67 101 67 105 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Central Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle. Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area. WA...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands. Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706). Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Friday for Western Chelan County. && $$