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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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644 FXUS62 KMLB 171826 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 226 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 226 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 ...Highest coverage of showers and storms near and north of the I-4 corridor as a pocket of drier air helps limit development further south... ...Shower and storm chances increase through the remainder of the week and into the weekend as moisture recovers... ...Peak heat indices 100 to 105 today will increase to 102 to 110 Thursday and beyond. A return of Major HeatRisk is forecast for a majority of east central Florida starting Thursday and continuing into the weekend, with some areas near Orlando potentially reaching Extreme HeatRisk... Current-Tonight...Hot and humid conditions continue with afternoon temps in the L-M90s and peak heat indices 100-105F, staying below heat advisory criteria. Those spending extended periods of time outdoors, are encouraged to remain well-hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade or in an air conditioned building. Overnight lows will remain consistent and in the M-U70s. GOES-16 ECONUS Total Precipitable Water Imagery continues to show drier air infiltrating the Space/Treasure coasts and across to Okeechobee and southern Osceola counties. This will keep afternoon-evening precip chances limited here, with highest chances across the I-4 corridor (30- 55pct). A few storms here will still be capable of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds of 40 to 50 mph, and locally heavy downpours leading to minor/nuisance flooding. Expect activity to wind down by mid to late evening, with clouds gradually thinning. Conditions warm and humid overnight with min temps in the M-U70s. Thursday-Tuesday...Previous Slightly Modified...High pressure over the western Atlantic will be the main influence across the Florida peninsula. The associated ridging will gradually lift from central FL northward this weekend and into early next week as flow becomes deeper S/SE. The drier air fizzles across the central peninsula over the next 24 hours as deep layer moisture recovers into the extended. Weaker flow aloft will continue to allow the development and inland progression of the east coast sea breeze, with showers and storms developing along it. The eventual sea breeze and additional outflow boundary collisions across the interior will lead to increasing coverage of showers and storms in the afternoon and early evening. Model guidance is indicating the approach of an inverted trough in the mid levels Monday into Tuesday, which could lead to some higher moisture and coverage of showers and storms. Being that this is further out in time in the forecast, and confidence in higher coverage at this time is still on the lower side, decided to continue to cap PoPs at 60%. Will continue to monitor trends as next week approaches. In general, any activity that develops across the peninsula will diminish into the overnight hours, with lingering showers and storms continuing to be possible across the local Atlantic waters. Slightly above normal temperatures are forecast to continue across east central Florida, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. Peak heat indices will continue to generally hit 100 to 107, with the potential for a few spots to reach 108 to 110 late this week into the weekend. A Moderate to Major HeatRisk is forecast to continue, with some spots near the Greater Orlando area and Lake County potentially reaching Extreme HeatRisk Friday through Sunday. This means extra caution will need to be taken to prevent heat-related illnesses. Hydration will continue to be key for both locals and visitors alike, and breaks either in the shade or in an air conditioned building should be taken if spending extended periods of time outdoors. && .MARINE... Issued at 226 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 Through Sunday...Persistent pattern with low-level ridging across the local waters, potentially lifting northward slowly over the weekend. This will continue to produce generally favorable boating conditions. Wind direction generally S/SW at night/morning, backing SERLY each day with sea breeze formation thru at least Fri, then staying more uniformly S/SE for much of the rest of the extended. Wind speeds AOB 15 kts thru the period. Seas mainly 2-3 ft, occasionally 4 ft well offshore; and locally higher invof lightning storms. ISOLD to SCT showers/storms will continue to favor the evening and overnight-early morning hour periods. A greater chance for shower and storm development during the daytime hours will occur from Fri through Sun. Any storms that develop may be capable of producing cloud-to-water lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2024 VFR is forecast outside of storms. Scat`d showers/storms are forecast to develop into the afternoon/evening with the greatest chances (30-50%) along and west of I-4. VCTS begins between 18-20Z at inland sites and KDAB/KTIX with TEMPO TSRA groups this afternoon/evening for inland sites and KDAB. E/SE winds at 5-10kts during the afternoon become light from the S/SE overnight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 94 77 94 / 10 40 10 50 MCO 76 96 77 96 / 20 50 10 60 MLB 77 91 77 91 / 10 50 10 50 VRB 76 92 76 93 / 10 50 10 50 LEE 77 95 78 95 / 20 50 20 60 SFB 76 96 77 96 / 10 50 10 60 ORL 77 96 78 96 / 20 50 10 60 FPR 76 91 76 92 / 10 50 10 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sedlock AVIATION...Fehling