Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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229 FXUS64 KMAF 011115 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 615 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 146 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 As much as I`d like to be talking about an exciting pattern change coming, we`ll see more of the same weather we`ve seen to start the week. The upper ridge remains in control across the southern Plains today, but nudges eastward some for Tuesday. With this, high temperatures this afternoon will be nearly identical to yesterday`s. A more eastward ridge center allows southwesterly flow to strengthen the low level thermal ridge some, ticking high temperatures up a few degrees for Tuesday. A few spots may need a Heat Advisory for Tuesday, notably the Big Bend and western Low Rolling Plains. Typical summertime diurnally driven storms continue across the Davis/Guadalupe Mountains and adjacent plains both today and tomorrow. -Munyan && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 146 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 The previously advertised and long awaited pattern change remains on track as we head through the end of the week into the weekend. The ever present southern CONUS ridge begins to slowly weaken across the southern Great Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. The effects of this change won`t be immediately felt as Wednesday and Thursday remain hot in the 90s and 100s. Afternoon diurnal convection continues across the western elevations, though should be more widespread as large-scale subsidence weakens. By Friday and the weekend, heights decrease as weak troughing replaces the ridge across the southern Great Plains. These decreased heights drop temperatures out of the upper 90s and low 100s into the lower 90s for many. While this remains warm, these temperatures are below normal for early July and offer some relief. With the arrival of the weak troughing, disturbances may sink southeast far enough to aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms across even the lower elevations of the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos. Further aiding in more widespread rainfall potential will be a large fetch of mid- level moisture being channeled northward between the southwestern and southeastern U.S. ridge centers. Rain chances are lowest across the lower elevations but still present, while the higher elevations and adjacent areas are most likely to experience appreciable rains. Regardless, a slightly cooler and wetter pattern is a welcomed sight to begin our July. -Chehak && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024 VFR conditions remain. Southeast winds have weakened slightly at most terminals early this morning but quickly strengthen and develop gusts early this afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 101 76 105 76 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 101 76 103 77 / 10 10 10 20 Dryden 99 74 102 75 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 100 74 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 92 72 94 73 / 10 10 10 30 Hobbs 98 72 102 73 / 0 10 0 10 Marfa 93 64 96 66 / 10 10 10 20 Midland Intl Airport 100 75 103 76 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 98 76 102 76 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 103 77 105 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...16 LONG TERM....91 AVIATION...91