872
FXUS64 KHGX 172010
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
310 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Think of today as the transition day from hot weather with a few
storms to a more rainy weather pattern as a cold front pushes
towards Southeast Texas. Now I know what you`re thinking...cold
front?! At this time of year, in this part of the country, localized
entirely within the Southern Plains?! The cold front itself won`t
technically make it any cooler because it`ll be fairly weak and
diffuse. However, the increasing moisture along with upper level
support (PVA) that results from it will lead to increasing rain
chances. So, the effects from the frontal boundary will make it
"cooler" but only by a few degrees per day. But hey, this time last
year we were talking about our high temperatures (not heat index
values) reaching the triple digits, so I`d take rainy weather (just
not too rainy) any day over that. The frontal boundary doesn`t move
in until early Thursday, so we`ll get back to that in a sec. For
this afternoon, we`re already seeing scattered convection developing
mainly south of I-10. One rather robust storm around the Pasadena
area has prompted a few Special Weather Statements and a Flood
Advisory with peak rainfall rates of ~3-4"/hr. Temperatures this
afternoon topping out mainly in the mid to upper 90s north of I-10
and low to mid 90s south of I-10 certainly played a role by adding
in some decent heating to the mix. Heat index values topped out just
below our Heat Advisory threshold this afternoon with most values
topping out around 104-107F.

Tonight is when we`ll see the frontal boundary approach from the
north. The 12Z CAMs are in somewhat of agreement on a cluster of
storms developing along the boundary with the greatest potential for
coverage being west of I-45 tonight into Thursday morning. This will
play a factor into what occurs Thursday afternoon, because a
solution of widespread rainfall will stabilize the environment and
keep things isolated. However, if things aren`t as widespread
tonight, then we could see additional showers/storms develop during
the afternoon hours on Thursday. With the increasing rain chances
though comes "cooler" temperatures as we are only anticipating high
temperatures in the low 90s for Thursday. Low temperatures see a
similar drop as well with lows going from the upper 70s on Wednesday
night to the low to mid 70s on Thursday night. With PW values above
the 90th percentile at times (especially with moisture convergence
along the frontal boundary), so locally heavy rainfall will be
possible at times and could lead to isolated street flooding. With
that in mind, it`s worth mentioning that WPC has most of Southeast
TX outlined in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive
rainfall tonight (north of I-10) into tomorrow (most of Southeast
TX).

Batiste/Holloway

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

The pattern will remained unsettled for southeast Texas during
the long term. The atmosphere near the surface will feature a
stalled, weak frontal boundary. The mid/upper levels will feature
increased troughing, dropping mid/upper pressure heights through
early next week. 500MB height ensemble means suggest negative
anomalies across much of the southern plains. Once diurnal
processes are added to the mix, we end up with an elevated daily
chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms across our region.
Highest PoPs in the Friday- Tuesday time frame are generally over
the southern half of the CWA. But our northern counties will
likely partake in the action as well. Locally heavier
thunderstorms are likely. Therefore, we cannot rule out localized
flooding during the long term.

Now let`s talk about temperatures! If you`re not a fan of the
higher rain chances, then perhaps you can take solace in the below
average afternoon temperatures. Friday-Sunday afternoon highs are
expected to average in the upper 80s to low 90s. By Monday and
Tuesday, we may be able to drop those values into the mid/upper
80s! Sure, it will still be humid. Overnight lows will not drop,
remaining well into the 70s for most. But as we all know, the
heat can be quite stifling here in southeast Texas. So enjoy the
less hot weather while it lasts!


Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Generally VFR conditions will persist throughout the day with
light southwesterly winds transitioning to southeasterly by the
afternoon. For sites, near and south of I-10, some isolated to
scattered showers/storms may develop between 19Z-22Z. A line of
storms look to push through the area from northwest to southeast
through the overnight hours mainly between 04Z-09Z. Additionally,
MVFR ceilings are expected for UTS/CXO between 10Z-15Z. For
Thursday, an additional round of convection is possible in the
afternoon but some uncertainty remains on placement/timing.

Batiste/Holloway

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 150 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2024

Generally light winds and low seas are expected through the
weekend. Winds may increase somewhat Monday-Tuesday, but should
remain in the light to occasionally moderate range. There will be
a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms thanks to an
approaching, weak frontal boundary that will stall over our region
by the weekend. Locally higher winds and seas possible near and
within thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  75  92  73  91 /  20  50  30  40
Houston (IAH)  78  93  75  90 /  10  60  50  70
Galveston (GLS)  81  90  78  88 /  30  60  50  70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Self