Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
918 FXUS64 KEPZ 021226 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 626 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .UPDATE... Issued at 625 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Very messy upper level pattern this morning. Our inverted trough is becoming a bit ill-defined, but is hovering over the Continental Divide south of the NM Bootheel, with mid level southerly flow over Far West Texas and eastern NM curving back to easterly in SW New Mexico. Westerlies continue at jet stream level, with a more diffluent pattern now present across New Mexico. Meanwhile, a sharp trough extends across Oregon and California, while the poorly defined subtropical ridge hovers near the CO/WY border. Low level SE flow has brought low clouds and patches of fog to the Sacramento Mountains, with widespread ceilings in the 2800 to 4500 foot range across south-central New Mexico. A poorly forecast cluster of thunderstorms late last night between Silver City and Deming dropped some locally heavy rainfall, and a small patch of leftover debris clouds is overing around the area. Scattered light rain showers are common over SE New Mexico, and a few of these are scraping along the east slopes of Sacs as well. Today we`re going to have the same problem as yesterday -- plenty of moisture (PWAT 1.37 inches on the 12Z EPZ RAOB), especially over the southeastern portion of the CWA, but warm air in the mid-levels persists, with 500 mb temperatures around -5 to -6C, and two distinct inversions evident on the sounding at 600 and 500 mb, with an elevated mixed layer in between. Most of the 00Z HREF members are not very optimistic on precip coverage and QPF over the Sacramentos this afternoon, but they`re also running too wet with precip coverage as of 12Z east of the Rio Grande. More recent runs of the HRRR have a better handle on reality, and suggest showers will be limited this morning, and we`ll still initiate deeper convection in the Sacramentos early this afternoon. Hanging out hat on that and keeping the Flood Watch going, but confidence is not high. In this moist environment, the odd stray shower or thunderstorm in the lowlands can`t be ruled out, so 20 PoPs are more widespread than I`d like. If there`s any theme with the HREF and other CAMS, it involves afternoon convection firing up in the higher terrain of the Gila Region, perhaps a couple hours later than the usual diurnal trend. Outflow, though not terribly strong will drift south early in the evening, and may interact with stronger outflow pushing in from the west, due to deeper convection in Arizona. The interaction between the two, along with continued moist advection, and a pocket of cooler mid level air running ahead of that California trough could make for an active evening and overnight period in Southwest New Mexico. That`s a lot of difficult-to- predict pieces that need to come together, but the signal is strong enough in the CAMS to keep the Flood Watch going in the far west. Burn scar considerations and a rather wet previous 72 hours in Luna County also came into play. The watch has been dropped for most of south-central New Mexico, including Las Cruces, where instability and lift will be lacking, while moisture is not. Can`t completely rule out some dust around Lordsburg Playa this evening depending on where convection crops up, and how strong the outflow from Arizona turns out to be. We`re not seeing the strong wind signature in the CAMS we have been seeing with some of our recent events out there, but the risk is still there despite the lower probabilities. && .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 550 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 - Thunderstorm coverage increases Wednesday and Thursday as upper level dynamics improve while deep moisture remains. - Drier air will move in for Friday through Sunday. - Temperatures will be below normal through Friday, then will warm back up to above normal this weekend. Some areas will reach 100 degrees again along the Rio Grande Lower Valley. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 955 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025 For tonight, scattered to broken clouds persist as deeper moisture moves in from the east associated with an inverted trough. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms develop over eastern areas by the early morning, spreading westward towards the RGV. Most of the rain should be light-moderate intensity through Wed AM as the low/thick clouds keep eastern areas more stable for Wednesday afternoon. PWs continue to climb for Wednesday, reaching 1.3-1.5" through the overnight. A Flood Watch has been issued for much of southern NM for Wed afternoon and overnight due to the high moisture content and forcing aloft. The inverted trough gets swept up into the western upper low, allowing for better lift across the region into Wed night. Wed afternoon will be relatively quiet with scattered mountain and isolated lowland activity. HREF guidance shows rain rates of 1-2" per hour from storms Wed night as activity progresses eastward out of AZ ahead of a shortwave. Areas from Deming west are most favored to see heavy rainfall (up to 4" within 2-3 hours) and flash flooding. Less forcing and instability is available for far west TX Wed night. On Thursday, the upper trough begins to lift to the northeast and bring in drier air for northwestern areas. Better moisture and forcing will be concentrated to the east with another Flood Watch possible. PWs remain well above normal east of the RGV Thursday with moderate instability (1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE). Fortunately, storm motions should be a bit faster and lower the flash flood threat somewhat. Strong winds are not as much of a concern through Thursday due to lower dew point depressions and higher moisture content. The rain threat largely ends Thursday night as the dry air aloft sweeps through the CWA behind the trough. Heading into the weekend, the monsoon high sets up over NM, keeping rain/storm chances very low (PWs dropping to near or slightly below normal). The 4th of July looks dry overall as the moisture is shoved to the south and east. Isolated storms are still possible in the mountains due to orographic lifting through Sunday. Moisture returns to start the new workweek as the upper high drifts a touch north. Several minor impulses push into our area from the east starting on Monday, bringing isolated to scattered storms and typical monsoon activity. Temperatures stay below normal through Thursday, warming to near or slightly above average this weekend under the upper high. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Moisture continues to increase across the area, and even some lower clouds with MVFR bases have cropped up in the area. Expect clouds will top the Franklin Mountains again through much of the morning, but MVFR CIGS currently at TCS will probably mix up to around 3500-4500 feet. Lack of instability and lift will limit deep convection chances, though the odd stray thunderstorm can`t be ruled out this afternoon, a bit like yesterday. Probabilities for TS too low to carry in TAFs (10 to 20 percent). Thunderstorm chances will increase this evening and tonight in SW New Mexico, with PROB30s for thunder warranted at DMN after 03Z, and LRU slightly less favored after 06Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 550 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Moisture continues to increase across the area this morning. However, much like yesterday, limited instability will reduce rainfall potential outside the higher terrain through most of the day, though spotty lighter showers will be still be common, especially east of the Rio Grande. Thunderstorm chances will increase over the Gila later in the afternoon, then spread into the lowlands of southwestern New Mexico this evening. Rainfall chances will persist through Thursday, with warmer and drier conditions arriving Friday through Sunday. Monsoon moisture will return early next week, however. Vent rates will be limited today in eastern areas, including the Sacramento Mountains, but will improve over the weekend as deeper mixing develops. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 86 71 88 73 / 30 40 40 30 Sierra Blanca 78 63 79 64 / 60 50 80 60 Las Cruces 84 66 86 66 / 20 30 50 30 Alamogordo 83 65 86 65 / 50 40 60 40 Cloudcroft 60 48 64 50 / 90 60 90 40 Truth or Consequences 86 67 86 68 / 20 40 60 20 Silver City 80 59 81 60 / 60 70 80 10 Deming 87 67 90 67 / 20 50 50 20 Lordsburg 88 66 88 66 / 40 60 60 20 West El Paso Metro 83 71 87 73 / 30 40 40 40 Dell City 81 67 82 67 / 40 30 60 30 Fort Hancock 84 70 87 70 / 60 40 70 50 Loma Linda 76 64 78 65 / 30 40 50 40 Fabens 84 69 87 70 / 30 40 40 40 Santa Teresa 83 69 86 70 / 30 30 50 30 White Sands HQ 83 69 86 70 / 30 30 50 40 Jornada Range 83 67 86 66 / 30 30 60 40 Hatch 87 68 89 67 / 20 40 60 30 Columbus 86 69 90 71 / 20 50 40 30 Orogrande 81 67 83 66 / 40 30 50 40 Mayhill 68 53 73 55 / 70 50 90 40 Mescalero 72 52 74 55 / 80 60 80 40 Timberon 68 51 70 52 / 60 50 80 40 Winston 78 55 78 55 / 40 50 80 20 Hillsboro 84 63 85 62 / 40 50 70 20 Spaceport 84 65 86 64 / 20 30 60 30 Lake Roberts 81 57 82 56 / 70 70 80 20 Hurley 83 61 83 61 / 50 50 70 10 Cliff 88 64 88 63 / 60 60 60 10 Mule Creek 85 61 84 60 / 60 70 60 10 Faywood 81 63 83 63 / 40 50 80 20 Animas 88 67 88 66 / 50 60 70 30 Hachita 86 65 87 66 / 40 60 70 30 Antelope Wells 86 64 86 66 / 50 60 70 40 Cloverdale 83 62 80 63 / 60 70 70 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...Flood Watch from noon MDT today through late tonight for Central Grant County/Silver City Area-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills- Lowlands of the Bootheel-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-Southern Gila Region Highlands/Black Range-Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-Uplands of the Bootheel-Upper Gila River Valley-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet. && $$ FORECASTER...25-Hardiman