485
FXUS64 KEPZ 142334
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
534 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Markedly drier air across the Borderland will limit thunderstorm
potential starting tomorrow and lasting through the forecast period.
A warming trend will take hold Thursday, with all locales seeing a 3
to 5 degree increase in temps compared to Wednesday`s readings.
Temperatures will hit their peak on Friday, when lowland areas
reach above 100 degrees. A few locales likely to hit Heat
Advisory criteria, including the El Paso metro.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

High pressure has moseyed into the ArkLaTex region today while a
shortwave trough pivots across the Great Basin. This has forced the
monsoonal moisture plume to advance to the east over eastern NM and
far west TX, where isolated showers and storms are ongoing.
Meanwhile, another upper high is pushing its way inland to the
coast of SoCal and will work to be the focus on the impacts to
sensible weather throughout the forecast period. This high
pressure will nose its way into the Desert Southwest tomorrow,
effectively working to shut off access to the moisture snaking up
the Sonoran and Chihuahuan deserts. This will all but squash any
convective dreams for the afternoon, with the only hopes for rogue
storms staying localized to eastern high terrain. As the high
reaches its eastern periphery into western NM, pressure heights
will rise dramatically. This will cause sfc temps to also warm
considerably, with most locales seeing an increase of 3F to 7F
compared to the previous day`s readings.

The 596dam high continues its saunter eastward into Friday,
positioning its center over the NM/AZ border. This will set the
stage for the hottest day of the week, with many lowland areas
seeing daytime highs near Heat Advisory criteria of 105F. The
stubborn high will wobble northward into NM over the weekend,
strengthening to an oppressive 598dam by Saturday afternoon.
Thankfully, its center being far to our north, a few degrees of
relief will be on tap for the Borderland over the weekend.
Temperatures will still remain hot, however, with near and slightly
above 100F being common. The high`s position will open up access to
the monsoon plume along its western periphery but any convective
aspirations will have to overcome very warm H5 temps and the
high`s strong subsidence. Any storms that do materialize will
likely remain weak and extremely localized to the far western
portion of the CWA.

The high takes a short detour to the TX Panhandle Sunday night but
quickly retrogrades back into NM by Monday afternoon. It`s at this
point that the high reaches its apex, climbing to 600dam by late
Tuesday morning. With its center near Gallup, the Borderland will
miss out on the worst of the heat the high has to offer, but will
still be party to very hot daytime temps. Heat Advisory criteria
will be on the horizon at the very least with this current
solution. Should the high wander further south, much warmer
temperatures could be in our future.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 525 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Much of the t-storm activity this afternoon has stayed well east
of the Rio Grande valley and away from terminals this afternoon.
This trend is expected to continue with very low chances of
terminals seeing TSRA tonight. Shower and t-storm activity will
diminish after sunset tonight. Winds generally remain light and
out of the southwest the remainder of the afternoon becoming calm
and westerly overnight. Thunderstorms expected to fire off in the
afternoon tomorrow but much of the area will stay dry. KELP would
have the best shot at seeing TSRA/SHRA tomorrow mid-afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 208 PM MDT Wed Aug 14 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not expected during the
forecast period, though elevated conditions will exist due to
increasing dryness. A downtick in convection is expected Thursday,
with isolated storms favoring the Sacramento and Hueco Mountains in
the afternoon. Relative humidity values will sit in the high teens
to 20 percent range through tomorrow before lowland values
plummet below 15 percent, with dryness increasing in coverage
through next week. Weak flow aloft will persist thanks to upper
level high pressure, and will allow for surface winds to remain
light and generally influenced by terrain for their direction.
Vent rates will sit around fair to good tomorrow, then improve to
good to excellent towards the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  77 103  78 105 /  10   0  10   0
Sierra Blanca            71  95  70  96 /  30  30  10  10
Las Cruces               71 101  72 102 /  10   0  10   0
Alamogordo               71  99  73  99 /  10  10   0  10
Cloudcroft               58  75  59  76 /  10  30   0  30
Truth or Consequences    72  98  72 100 /  10   0   0  10
Silver City              65  92  68  93 /  10  10   0  20
Deming                   70 100  71 101 /  10   0  10   0
Lordsburg                70  98  71 100 /  10   0  10  10
West El Paso Metro       75 100  77 101 /  10   0  10   0
Dell City                71 101  73 101 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Hancock             74 101  74 102 /  20  10  10  10
Loma Linda               70  93  71  95 /  20  20  10  10
Fabens                   74 100  75 101 /  20   0  10  10
Santa Teresa             73  99  74 100 /  10   0  10  10
White Sands HQ           75  99  75 101 /  10  10  10  10
Jornada Range            71 100  72 101 /  10   0   0  10
Hatch                    70 101  72 102 /  10   0   0  10
Columbus                 72 100  74 101 /  10   0  10   0
Orogrande                72  98  73  99 /  10  10  10  10
Mayhill                  61  86  61  87 /  10  20   0  20
Mescalero                61  86  61  87 /  10  10   0  30
Timberon                 61  84  62  86 /  10  20   0  20
Winston                  62  90  64  91 /  10   0   0  20
Hillsboro                68  96  70  97 /  10   0   0  10
Spaceport                70  99  71 100 /  10   0   0  10
Lake Roberts             61  90  62  92 /  10  10   0  20
Hurley                   66  95  68  96 /  10   0   0  10
Cliff                    67  99  68 101 /  10   0   0  20
Mule Creek               67  94  69  96 /  10   0   0  20
Faywood                  68  94  69  96 /  10   0   0  10
Animas                   69  97  70 100 /  10   0  10  10
Hachita                  69  98  70  99 /  10   0  10  10
Antelope Wells           68  96  69  98 /  10   0  10  10
Cloverdale               65  91  66  93 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...37-Slusher