549
FXUS62 KCAE 140819
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
419 AM EDT Wed Aug 14 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves into the region mid to late week allowing
for dry weather and slightly cooler temperatures. As a weak
cold front approaches the Southeast this weekend, moisture and
rain chances return. The front may stall over the Southeast
early next week leading to a slight chance of rain.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- Isolated showers or weak thunderstorms possible mainly in the
  southeast Midlands and CSRA.

Upper ridge over the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi
Valley. Deep low over the Canadian Maritimes with trough along
the east coast this afternoon shifting slowly east tonight.
Northwest flow aloft across the Carolinas. The frontal boundary
that has been located across the area has moved south of the
area. High pressure over the Mid Atlantic region will extend
into the area. This will result in northeast low-level
flow/weak cold advection and drier air especially later this
afternoon. A short wave trough moving through the area may
trigger a few isolated showers...perhaps a weak thunderstorm
mainly in the southeast Midlands near weak sea breeze
convergence area. Although some cloudiness expected especially
this morning, drier conditions expected overall, especially in
the north Midlands. Afternoon highs are forecast to be in the
mid to upper 80s and lows tonight in the upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message(s):

- None

A relatively dry air mass and high pressure will likely
preclude precipitation over the area through Thursday night.
Atmospheric moisture is particularly low on Thursday with PWAT
values from 1 to 1.25 inches. Afternoon dewpoints in the low to
mid 60s will be a nice change of pace from the humidity over the
last few weeks. With drier air in place and light winds
overnight lows may get down into the mid to upper 60s, which
would be the coolest CAE has been since the first week in July.
Moisture begins to return to the area Friday but subsidence over
the region should still inhibit convective development. Expect
highs each day in the upper 80s to low 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Message(s):

- A weak front works into the Southeast this weekend leading to
  increasing rain chances

An upper level low will move into the Great Lakes region on
Friday and Saturday. As troughing digs into the eastern US, the
associated cold front will approach the forecast area this
weekend. As SW flow strengthens over the Southeast, PWAT values
should increase to near 2 inches on Saturday. With convergence
along and ahead of the front, and upper divergence over the
region, we should see rain chances ramp up. This could lead to
scattered showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. At this
point the chance for severe weather is low given weak
instability and the stronger upper dynamics remaining north of
the area. The front is expected to move east of the FA and stall
closer to the coast for the remainder of the long term. If this
is the case, then the higher rain chances should be limited to
east of the forecast area. Temperatures will be near or slightly
cooler than normal in the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to generally prevail over the next 24
hours, with MVFR ceilings early this morning at AGS/DNL.

Weak frontal boundary is now south of the area. High pressure
over North Carolina extending into the area. Resulting northeast
flow across the area. Satellite showing strato-cumulus and
alto-cumulus across the area at 05z. Guidance indicating a
period of MVFR ceilings more likely in the AGS/DNL terminal
areas with VFR at the other terminals. Ceilings should improve
after 12z with scattered to broken VFR strato-cumulus. A few
isolated showers possible mainly in the southeast Midlands and
CSRA through the morning into the early afternoon. Winds
northeast 5 to 10 knots.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Early morning fog and stratus with
brief MVFR/IFR restrictions may occur, especially at prone
AGS/OGB. Widely scattered diurnally driven thunderstorms
Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$