Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
181 FXUS65 KREV 062013 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 113 PM PDT Sat Jul 6 2024 .SYNOPSIS... * Prolonged heatwave continues through nearly all of next week, with seasonable breezes and low humidity. * Potential increase in breezes and thunderstorm chances late next week. && .DISCUSSION... * No meaningful changes to the forecast, however we will extend the Heat Warnings & Advisories through Thursday as guidance indicates similarly hot temperatures persisting from earlier in the week. * We`re now entering the core of this heatwave, so hunker down. This morning`s 500mb height of 5970m is not far off the record for the REV site of 6000m from 7/11/2002. When all is said and done, this will probably go down as one of the longer heatwaves on record in W Nevada and the Eastern Sierra. One slight mitigating factor is pretty dry air will allow for cooling at night outside of core urban areas and mid-slopes. See more climate and context facts below. * Wildfires burning to our immediate west are not showing a lot of activity today. So barring a major resurgence in fire, at most we might see pockets of light haze in the E Sierra today & tomorrow. Transport winds are fairly light westerly with upper high close by. * Still seeing signs late next week for the heat ridge to move eastward enough that we`d see some cooling, but nothing too "refreshing". Maybe enough to allow monsoon moisture to work northward yielding isolated t-storms Thursday/Friday onward, 10- 20% type stuff. This is a classic fire weather pattern where we bake for 10 days then have storms, so any lightning even from wetter storms could produce new fire starts. -Chris && .AVIATION... Typical afternoon W/NW breezes with VFR conditions expected through the weekend. Pockets of wildfire haze possible between TVL-MMH but not anticipating appreciable visibility restrictions. Hot temperatures could result in density altitude concerns for some aircraft each afternoon into next week. -Chris && .CLIMATE... Record High and Warm Low Temperatures for July 6th-11th at Reno-Tahoe International Airport (KRNO) -------------------------------------------------------------------- Date Forecast(High/Low) Record High(Year) Record Warm Low(Year) ------ ----------------- ---------------- -------------------- July 6 106/68101F (2021+) 71F (2007) July 7 106/66102F (2014) 68F (2004++) July 8 106/70104F (2017) 71F (2014) July 9 106/68104F (2021) 69F (2021) July 10 106/68 108F (2002) 65F (1974) July 11 104/69 108F (2002) 75F (1932) + denotes record also seen in 2014 ++ denotes record also seen in 2001 Current record for consecutive days of 100F or greater at KRNO is 10 days, set in July 2021 and July 2005. The record for consecutive days of 105 or greater is only 2 days, which has occurred 6 times in climate history, most recently July 2023. Both of these have the potential to be broken with this heatwave. && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Heat Advisory until 10 AM PDT Friday NVZ002. Excessive Heat Warning until 10 AM PDT Friday NVZ001-003>005. CA...Heat Advisory until 10 AM PDT Friday CAZ070>073. && $$