404
FXUS66 KOTX 032231
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
331 PM PDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mountain showers, seasonal temperatures, and breezy winds will be in
place over North Idaho for tonight. Confidence is increasing in a
substantial long duration heatwave starting after July 4th. It is
expected to last through midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

...Extended period of very hot and dry conditions starting
Saturday...

Tonight: The Inland Northwest will be under the influence of an
exiting trough and strengthening ridge for the period. Any shower
and thunderstorm activity will generally be over North Idaho. The
main impact from the thunderstorms will be lightning and brief
heavy rain. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s and 50s.

Thursday through Wednesday: The region will be under a strengthening
ridge for the period. It will usher in several days of hot, dry
conditions. Winds will generally be light with mild increases from
the afternoon mixing. Gusts will stay below 20 MPH. The main
concern is the prolonged dry, warming period for most of the
region. Temperatures will steadily climb through the weekend and
start of next week. The highs are expected in the upper 80s and
90s. Areas of the Basin will see several days of triple digits
starting Saturday and lasting through Tuesday. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 50s to low 70s.

Ensembles begin to shift the ridge axis east and bring a southwest
flow pattern into the region. It will increase the moisture
amount in the air. This will lead to gradual decline from the
extreme high temperature period. Ensembles are not bringing much
decline though. Wednesday is still expected to have temperatures
as warm has Tuesday. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected for the TAF sites for the
period. Convection is possible over North Idaho during the
afternoon and early evening with lightning probability of 10-20%.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in
VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  88  58  93  61  96 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  54  84  56  88  60  91 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Pullman        52  84  54  89  57  93 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       61  94  63  98  66 102 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       47  85  50  90  53  92 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      50  82  50  87  53  88 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        56  80  59  86  62  89 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     56  93  59  99  63 101 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      60  92  65  99  68 101 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           58  93  60  98  63 100 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for Central
     Panhandle Mountains-Northern Panhandle.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday
     for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez
     Perce Counties-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from noon Sunday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday
     for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin
     Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Okanogan
     Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-
     Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County.

     Heat Advisory from noon Saturday to 10 PM PDT Tuesday for
     Western Chelan County.

&&

$$