237
FXUS66 KOTX 010516
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1000 PM PDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Showers and thunderstorms will piddle out after sunset tonight and
skies will clear. Mountain showers, seasonal temperatures, and
breezy winds will recur each afternoon through early next week. A
drier and much warmer pattern will set up by the end of the work
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of Sunday: A sharp shortwave moving through aloft has brought a
moist, unstable airmass over the Inland Northwest which has created
a favorable environment for convection to develop this afternoon.
We`re seeing several lines of showers and thunderstorms tracking
through northeastern WA and northern ID bringing heavy rain,
lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. Storms are expected
to continue into the evening and fizzle out after sunset. Areas
expected to receive the highest rainfall amounts (upward of half an
inch) by the end of the night include Boundary County, northern Pend
Orielle County, and northern Bonner County. This area handles large
amounts of rainfall better than the rest of the region, so the
threat of flash flooding is low. Our insulating blanket of clouds
will clear out overnight, and temperatures will drop into the 40s
and 50s - considerably cooler than last night.

Monday and Tuesday: The first couple of days of the workweek will be
fairly similar to today with temperatures rising into the 70s and
80s and a threat of showers developing each afternoon over
northeastern WA and north ID. Thunderstorms embedded within the
showers will be more isolated. Unlike this morning, we`ll begin
Monday and Tuesday with blue skies. Cumulus clouds won`t develop
until later in the day and will be more confined to the northern
part of the region. Areas west and south of Spokane will stay mainly
clear. Winds will be breezy both days for the Wenatchee area and
over the Waterville Plateau with gusts up to 30 mph possible.
/Fewkes

Wednesday through Sunday: High pressure off the coast of Northern
California will build a ridge over the Pacific Northwest. Models are
in a good agreement. The Inland Northwest will be under a dry
Northwest flow pattern. The only chance for precip for the period is
over North Idaho on Wednesday. Moisture from a passing shortwave
could bring some isolated shower activity to the area. Winds will
generally be light with mild increases from the afternoon mixing.
Gusts will stay below 20 MPH. The main concern is the prolonged
dry, warming period for most of the region. Temperatures will
steadily climb through the weekend. For Friday and the weekend,
the highs are expected to the upper 80s and 90s. There is the
possibility of triple digits for the Southwest Basin. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 50s and 60s. The long dry, hot pattern and 4th
of July holiday could make for bad combination. A weak system on
Sunday will bring little reprieve from the heat as temperatures
rebound back on Monday. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The active showers and thunderstorms which impacted most
of eastern WA and north ID this afternoon and evening will decrease
through midnight. Except for KCOE the remaining TAF sites will
remain clear of them for the night. The main problem overnight will
revolve around the rain which fell today. Some heavy amounts were
reported at KSFF, KCOE and the valleys over NE WA and N ID and
suspect fog will form overnight as the higher clouds clear and winds
abate. Confidence is high the fog will form north of the KCOE and
SFF but not as confident for the airports themselves. However I
figure that patchy shallow fog will form over the next couple hours
and could expand into the early morning hours. I went for IFR
conditions with a much smaller chance for KGEG. VFR conditions will
prevail at all sites on Monday, however showers and a few
thunderstorms will reform tomorrow afternoon. Most of these will be
N and E of KGEG-KSFF-KCOE and should dissipate by mid-evening. fx

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in
VFR conditions for KPUW/KLWS/KMWH/KEAT with low to moderate
confidence for IFR conditions due to fog/stratus for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        53  81  54  82  52  83 /  20  10   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  53  78  53  77  51  77 /  30  20   0   0   0  10
Pullman        52  76  51  77  50  78 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       61  85  59  87  58  86 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       45  79  45  79  45  79 /  30  50   0  10   0  10
Sandpoint      49  74  49  76  49  75 /  50  50  10  10  10  30
Kellogg        55  73  54  74  53  74 /  30  20  10   0   0  20
Moses Lake     56  86  54  87  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      60  82  57  84  58  86 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           54  86  54  87  55  87 /  10  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$