798
FXUS66 KOTX 160559
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1059 PM PDT Mon Jul 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Hot and dry weather will continue this week with widespread upper
90s and triple digit temperatures. On Wednesday there is chance of
thunderstorms across the region containing little to no rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight through Wednesday Night: An upper ridge will remain over
the region into Tuesday with a slight increase in temperatures.
This increase has prompted the issuance of another heat advisory
for several valleys across the region with moderate to major heat
risk. Most locations within the heat advisory will top out in the
mid 90s to near 103F on Tuesday. Then on Wednesday attention will
turn to a mid level disturbances moving through the region from
the south. An increase in mid level instability, along with a
continued hot and dry low level air mass will increase the
potential for thunderstorms with little to no rain. For most of
the region coverage is expected to be isolated with 700-500mb MU
CAPE values around 200-500 J/KG with moderate amounts of lift.
However areas from the East Slopes of the Cascades into the
Waterville Plateau, Okanogan Valley, and Okanogan Highlands will
be under the core of highest lift and instability with better
model support for scattered coverage. Lightning will raise
concerns for new fire starts across the landscape on Wednesday. In
addition, gusty outflow winds could result in fire spread with any
new starts. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for several areas
of North Central Washington.

Smoke from the Pioneer Fire will continue this week, impacting air
quality especially around Lake Chelan, and portions of the Methow
Valley. The Department of Ecology has issued an Air Quality Alert
until further notice.  JW

Thursday through Monday: The ridge will rebound behind Wednesdays
wave and gradually bring the above normal temperatures to the
region. Temperatures will peak over the weekend with highs
reaching into the upper 90s and low triple digits. Overnight lows
will be the 60s to low 70s. Ensembles are in good agreement of the
ridge pattern over the Pacific Northwest lasting through the
weekend. The models begin to shift the ridge Eastward late Monday
and Tuesday as a trough begins to press into the region. It will
bring slightly cooler temps but also breezy winds. We will have to
keep an eye out for the pattern change. Smoke will continue to
impact the areas near the Pioneer Fire. /JDC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Skies will be mainly cloud-free through the night and
into Tuesday. High clouds over Oregon aren`t expected to make much
northward progress as moisture above 20 thousand feet encounters
strong upper level high pressure. Drainage winds along the East
Slopes of the Cascades will push smoke from the Pioneer Fire down
Lake Chelan into the Chelan and Methow Valley airports. Some minor
visibility reductions will also be possible at Ephrata and Moses
Lake Tuesday morning before light south winds develop around noon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE
SCENARIOS: With the exception of smoke near the Pioneer Fire,
there is high confidence in VFR conditions. /GKoch

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        61  98  63  99  64  99 /   0   0   0  20  20   0
Coeur d`Alene  59  95  61  97  63  96 /   0   0   0  10  20   0
Pullman        55  93  60  95  60  94 /   0   0   0  20  10   0
Lewiston       66 103  69 104  71 105 /   0   0   0  20  10   0
Colville       53  95  54  97  54  97 /   0   0   0  20  20   0
Sandpoint      55  93  58  95  56  95 /   0   0   0  10  20   0
Kellogg        63  91  67  95  68  94 /   0   0   0  10  20   0
Moses Lake     60 100  63 102  63 101 /   0   0   0  20  10   0
Wenatchee      68 100  74 100  71 102 /   0   0   0  20  20   0
Omak           65 103  67 103  66 104 /   0   0   0  20  20   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for Coeur
     d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 10 PM PDT Thursday for
     Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-
     Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia
     Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-
     Western Okanogan County.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-East Portion of
     North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National
     Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades
     (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-
     Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow
     Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains
     (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau
     (Zone 706).

&&

$$