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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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759 FXUS66 KOTX 170459 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 256 PM PDT Tue Jul 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and dry weather will continue this week with widespread upper 90s and triple digit temperatures. On Wednesday there is chance of thunderstorms across the region containing little to no rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight and Wednesday: The upper level ridge has shifted slightly east allowing warm southwest flow to intrude over the Inland Northwest. It will continue the above normal temperatures for the foreseeable future. A shortwave will swing up the west side of the ridge on Wednesday. It has enough instability and moisture to bring the threat of thunderstorms across the region for the afternoon and evening hours. Lightning will raise concerns for new fire starts across the landscape. Short term models are also showing an outflow wave pushing off the Cascades and spreading the convection across the Northern Columbia Basin. The lightning potential is lower with this line. The main concern will be the localized gusty winds spreading any new fire starts rapidly. Smoke will continue to impact air quality near area wildfires. Highs for the day will be in the upper 90s and low triple digits. Lows will be in the 60s. Thursday through Monday: The ridge will rebound to the west behind Wednesdays wave and keep the above normal temperatures. Temperatures will peak over the weekend with highs reaching into the upper 90s and low triple digits. Overnight lows will be the 60s to low 70s. Ensembles are in good agreement of the ridge pattern over the Pacific Northwest lasting through the weekend. The models begin to shift the ridge Eastward late Monday and Tuesday as a trough begins to press into the region. It will bring slightly cooler temps but also breezy winds. We will have to keep an eye out for the pattern change as it could bring some fire weather concerns. Smoke will continue to impact the areas near any wildfires. /JDC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Skies will be mainly cloud-free overnight and through the morning. Downslope winds along the East Slopes of the Cascades will push smoke from the Pioneer Fire down Lake Chelan into the Chelan and Methow Valley airports. Some minor visibility reductions will also occur at the Lewiston airport with localized smoke from Oregon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: With the exception of smoke near the Pioneer Fire and in Lewiston, there is high confidence in VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 64 100 65 99 65 97 / 0 20 20 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 62 97 63 97 63 96 / 0 10 20 0 0 0 Pullman 60 95 59 95 60 93 / 0 20 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 68 104 70 105 71 104 / 0 20 10 0 0 0 Colville 55 98 55 97 55 97 / 0 20 20 0 0 0 Sandpoint 57 95 60 95 57 95 / 0 10 20 0 0 0 Kellogg 67 96 67 93 69 94 / 0 10 20 0 0 0 Moses Lake 62 102 62 102 62 99 / 0 20 10 0 0 0 Wenatchee 74 101 71 102 69 99 / 0 20 20 0 0 0 Omak 67 103 66 105 67 103 / 0 20 20 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for Coeur d`Alene Area- Idaho Palouse-Lewiston Area. WA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for Central Chelan County- Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Okanogan Valley-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning from noon Wednesday to midnight PDT Wednesday night for Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Red Flag Warning from 11 AM Wednesday to midnight PDT Wednesday night for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)- Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706). && $$