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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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637 FXUS66 KOTX 172152 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 252 PM PDT Wed Jul 17 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Hot and dry weather will continue this week with widespread upper 90s and triple digit temperatures. For tonight, there is chance of thunderstorms across the region containing little to no rainfall. Today && .DISCUSSION... Tonight and Thursday morning: A shortwave is currently passing through the Inland Northwest. It is expected to continue through early Thursday morning. It is already generating lightning over the Cascades of Southern Washington. It will slowly spread North and bring thunderstorms to Chelan and Western Okanogan county through early evening. Lightning will raise concerns for new fire starts across the landscape. Short term models are showing another round of convection possible as the wave continue to move through Eastern Washington and North Idaho. The lightning potential is lower with this line. The better chances for thunderstorms will be over the Blues, Palouse, Spokane, and Northeast Washington areas. The main concern will be the localized gusty winds around 40 MPH spreading any new fire starts rapidly. Lows will be in the 60s. Thursday through Monday: The ridge is proving to be very stubborn. The models have previous shifted the ridge east through Friday but now have kept it in place over the Pacific Northwest. It will keep continue to keep daytime highs into the upper 90s and triple digits for many. Temperatures will peak over the weekend with highs reaching into the upper 90s and low triple digits. Overnight lows will be the 60s to low 70s. Ensembles are in good agreement of the ridge pattern over the Pacific Northwest lasting through the weekend. The models begin to shift the ridge Eastward late Monday and Tuesday as a trough begins to press into the region. It will bring slightly cooler temps but also breezy winds. We will have to keep an eye out for the pattern change as it could bring some fire weather concerns. Smoke is will continue to impact the air quality for areas around wildfires particularly the Lake Chelan and Lower Idaho Panhandle. The smoke could help to bring a little relief from the daytime highs. /JDC && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: High clouds and smoke are passing through the region. Downslope winds along the East Slopes of the Cascades will push smoke from the Pioneer Fire down Lake Chelan into the Chelan and Methow Valley airports this morning. Some minor visibility reductions will also occur at the Lewiston airport with localized smoke from Oregon. Small chance of thunderstorms overnight and into Thursday morning for most TAF sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: With the exception of smoke near the Pioneer Fire and in Lewiston, there is high confidence in VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 65 98 64 98 66 101 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 63 95 63 96 63 100 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 58 94 59 94 61 99 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 71 104 71 104 71 108 / 40 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 57 97 55 97 55 100 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 60 93 57 95 56 98 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 67 92 68 94 69 98 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 63 101 62 101 62 103 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 71 102 70 100 70 103 / 30 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 67 103 66 103 66 106 / 50 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Sunday for Coeur d`Alene Area- Idaho Palouse-Lewiston Area. WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Sunday for Central Chelan County- Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area- Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley- Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County. Red Flag Warning until midnight PDT tonight for Lower Palouse - Snake River (Zone 709). Red Flag Warning until midnight PDT tonight for Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Red Flag Warning until 2 AM PDT Thursday for Foothills of Northeast Washington (Zone 701). Red Flag Warning until midnight PDT tonight for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-East Portion of North Cascades National Park/Lake Chelan National Recreation Area (Zone 697)-East Washington Central Cascades (Zone 696)-East Washington North Cascades (Zone 698)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)- Okanogan Highlands and Kettle Mountains (Zone 699)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706). && $$