785
FXUS64 KOHX 071626
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1126 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday night)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

Dew points continue to be relaxed today under northeast flow. This
is making for a fairly comfortable last day of the holiday weekend.
Doesn`t mean it isn`t warm out there, though. Temperatures will top
out in the low to mid 90s. Fortunately, rains will stay off the
radar. The transition to muggier conditions happens tonight. By
tomorrow morning, the region will firmly be in a southerly flow
bringing low 70s dew points back to Middle TN tomorrow. With the
warmest air temperatures of the week expected tomorrow, Heat
Index values will touch low triple digits once again west of the
Cumberland Plateau. Rain chances will also creep back into the
forecast, however they are pretty small. Looks like the best shot
will be across our southern tier of mid-state counties during the
late afternoon and early evening hours. Activity should remain
fairly isolated based on latest CAM solutions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

A few changes have reared their heads since yesterday. As mentioned
overnight, Beryl will be making landfall on the TX coast tonight and
this will drive our weather for Tuesday. Uncertainty in Beryl`s
trajectory lead us to talk more of a rain event yesterday with the
potential for 1 to 3 inches. Latest WPC revisions suggest much lower
QPF (less than an inch) as current forecast trajectories keep the
surface low of Beryl`s remnants following a path up the
Mississippi River, merging it with a mid-level wave over the
center of the country. Here`s the problem with this: it puts
Middle TN into a position of at least a low-end severe weather
potential rather than a heavy-ish rain event. Current forecast
soundings Tuesday afternoon and evening are showing a healthy
amount of deep layer shear (35-40 kts) coupled with plenty of
instability that will already be in place. Also, hodographs show
some curve in them. I`d like to see better lapse rates for severe
weather, but they don`t typically accompany tropical-type
systems, so it may not matter. By no means am I ringing any bells
here, but this is a change from what we were seeing yesterday.
Best chances for some isolated wind gusts and yes, even a brief
spin-up would be west of I-65. We`ll update this potential tonight
and again tomorrow, obviously, but a lot will depend on the
eventual track of that surface low of Beryl`s remnants. Please
remain weather aware for Tuesday.

Not only do we have this big change in the forecast, but in the wake
of Beryl`s remnants, things looks much quieter than previously
thought. By early Wednesday morning, rain chances evaporate and
right now, the rest of the week looks mostly dry. The unfortunate
side of that means without the rain chances, afternoon highs will
creep higher each day. Extended guidance shows forecast highs
getting back into the mid and upper 90s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Any patchy fog this morning
will lift in the next hour or so. Light northerly winds under 7
knots.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      93  72  96  76 /   0   0  20  20
Clarksville    91  68  92  73 /   0   0  10  30
Crossville     88  67  90  69 /  10  10  30  30
Columbia       93  70  95  73 /   0   0  30  20
Cookeville     88  69  90  71 /   0  10  20  20
Jamestown      88  67  90  70 /   0  10  20  20
Lawrenceburg   92  70  94  72 /   0   0  30  30
Murfreesboro   94  71  96  74 /   0   0  20  20
Waverly        91  70  92  72 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....Mueller