944
FXUS64 KOHX 080651
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
151 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

Partly cloudy skies are in place this morning. Temperatures are
generally in the lower 70s and winds are light.

The upcoming short term period through Wednesday will hinge largely
on Hurricane Beryl. Currently, Beryle is a cat 1 hurricane and is
poised to make land fall in the next few hours along the TX Gulf
coast, roughly have way between Corpus and Galveston. He is showing
signs of slowing down and is moving to the north northwest at just
10 mph. Moving forward, the storm will move northward and weaken
into a depression on Tuesday as it moves across AR. By Wed afternoon
the remnants will be centered across western OH.

For our area, not too much going on today or tonight. Moisture
levels will, however, increase enough to warrant some low chances
for afternoon and evening convection. Any activity is not expected
to be severe.

On Tuesday, a weakening Beryl will be pushing across far western TN
and the MO bootheel. Instability does transport northward quite well
across our area. Wind energy also increase across our far west. The
better lift and organization is across west TN and perhaps could
effect our far western zones. Note that there is a marginal risk for
our north and west. The severe potential involves damaging winds
and being on the right hand side of the tropical system, some low
end spinners could perhaps be something to watch out for. I`d say
the afternoon and early evening period would be the timeframe for
any severe storms. And again, it only looks possible across our
west. Conditions will improve by Wednesday. Perhaps some lighter
showers and a few tstms could linger.

Overall qpf projections through Wednesday look like 1 to 1 1/2
inches in our far northwest, and generally closer to just one half
inch elsewhere. Note that a 2-3 inch area lines up from the MO
Bootheel ne through Paducah.

Gradient wind speeds through the period look rather benign. However,
on Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, maybe our western areas
could see 10-20 mph winds with gusts up to 25 mph or so. That`s
about it though.

For the near term temps, quite warm through Tuesday night with
temperatures a few degrees above normal. On Wednesday, only mid 80s
or so are slated for highs as clouds persist but we receive a
slightly cooler westerly flow, behind Beryl.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through next Monday)
Issued at 148 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

In The extended forecast,  the remnants of Beryl will push on off to
our north and northeast on Thursday. He will be replaced by a
prevailing surface high which will basically maintain its hold
through much of the period. The upper levels will feature some
modest, but largely apparent, w-e ridging through the deep and mid
south. Pops will be included but only to the tune of 20% or so. Cape
return looks weak and the late afternoon hours feature a tendency
toward subsidence.

As for any additional tropical development? Not seeing much of
anything at this point.

For those extended temperatures, we will start out close to seasonal
levels. However, heights are expected to rise through the period as
we remain sandwiched between a rather strong rocky mountain upper
high as well as another upper high toward our east across Bermuda.
So, look for our temps to climb into the mid 90s by next weekend.

$$

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

VFR conditions will prevail at BNA/MQY/CKV for the taf period. Fog
may impact CSV/SRB prior to dawn this morning. Any fog will
dissipate by 12-13z. A stray shower or storm could impact
BNA/MQY/SRB/CSV this afternoon but chances are too low to include.
Winds will be around 5 kts or less through the taf period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      96  75  95  74 /  20  20  60  60
Clarksville    92  73  89  71 /  20  30  70  80
Crossville     90  69  90  69 /  30  10  50  50
Columbia       96  73  95  71 /  20  20  50  50
Cookeville     90  71  90  71 /  20  10  50  60
Jamestown      90  69  89  71 /  20  10  50  50
Lawrenceburg   95  72  94  71 /  20  20  50  50
Murfreesboro   97  73  96  73 /  20  20  50  60
Waverly        92  71  91  68 /  20  40  70  70

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Reagan