Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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517 FXUS64 KOHX 072317 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 617 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday night) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Dew points continue to be relaxed today under northeast flow. This is making for a fairly comfortable last day of the holiday weekend. Doesn`t mean it isn`t warm out there, though. Temperatures will top out in the low to mid 90s. Fortunately, rains will stay off the radar. The transition to muggier conditions happens tonight. By tomorrow morning, the region will firmly be in a southerly flow bringing low 70s dew points back to Middle TN tomorrow. With the warmest air temperatures of the week expected tomorrow, Heat Index values will touch low triple digits once again west of the Cumberland Plateau. Rain chances will also creep back into the forecast, however they are pretty small. Looks like the best shot will be across our southern tier of mid-state counties during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Activity should remain fairly isolated based on latest CAM solutions. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1120 AM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 A few changes have reared their heads since yesterday. As mentioned overnight, Beryl will be making landfall on the TX coast tonight and this will drive our weather for Tuesday. Uncertainty in Beryl`s trajectory lead us to talk more of a rain event yesterday with the potential for 1 to 3 inches. Latest WPC revisions suggest much lower QPF (less than an inch) as current forecast trajectories keep the surface low of Beryl`s remnants following a path up the Mississippi River, merging it with a mid-level wave over the center of the country. Here`s the problem with this: it puts Middle TN into a position of at least a low-end severe weather potential rather than a heavy-ish rain event. Current forecast soundings Tuesday afternoon and evening are showing a healthy amount of deep layer shear (35-40 kts) coupled with plenty of instability that will already be in place. Also, hodographs show some curve in them. I`d like to see better lapse rates for severe weather, but they don`t typically accompany tropical-type systems, so it may not matter. By no means am I ringing any bells here, but this is a change from what we were seeing yesterday. Best chances for some isolated wind gusts and yes, even a brief spin-up would be west of I-65. We`ll update this potential tonight and again tomorrow, obviously, but a lot will depend on the eventual track of that surface low of Beryl`s remnants. Please remain weather aware for Tuesday. Not only do we have this big change in the forecast, but in the wake of Beryl`s remnants, things looks much quieter than previously thought. By early Wednesday morning, rain chances evaporate and right now, the rest of the week looks mostly dry. The unfortunate side of that means without the rain chances, afternoon highs will creep higher each day. Extended guidance shows forecast highs getting back into the mid and upper 90s by next weekend. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR conditions currently prevail with just mid to high level clouds and light winds. There is the possibility of patchy fog after 06Z along the Cumberland Plateau, including KCSV and KSRB, which may result in MVFR visibilities. Any fog that does develop will diminish shortly after sunrise. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon, however, at this time, best chances look to remain south of all TAF sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 72 96 76 94 / 0 20 20 70 Clarksville 68 92 73 90 / 0 10 30 70 Crossville 67 90 69 89 / 10 30 30 60 Columbia 70 95 73 94 / 0 30 20 70 Cookeville 69 90 71 89 / 10 20 20 60 Jamestown 67 90 70 89 / 10 20 20 60 Lawrenceburg 70 94 72 94 / 0 30 30 60 Murfreesboro 71 96 74 95 / 0 20 20 60 Waverly 70 92 72 91 / 0 20 30 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Clements