Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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450 FXUS62 KMLB 071127 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 727 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFs) Issued at 657 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 VFR is forecast outside of storms. A slightly stronger ECSB compared to the WCSB will result in the greatest chance for scat`d showers/storms over the W interior. VCTS begins between 19-20Z for inland sites and KSUA with TEMPO TSRA from 21-23Z at KLEE and mostly dry weather at coastal sites. Light and variable winds increase from the ESE in the afternoon at 5-10kts. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 ...A high risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents continues for the Volusia, Brevard, Indian River coastline... ...Above-normal temperatures continue into early next week... ...Chances for showers and lightning storms increase early next week... Current-Tonight...Mostly dry over land with ISOLD shower activity across the local coastal waters early this morning. Warm and muggy temperatures continue. A rather weak pressure pattern also continues across the region. Ridging aloft resides across the area with very warm H500 temps (-3.0C to -5.0C). PWAT values will see modest improvement (1.50-1.70 inches) thru sunrise, with conditions continuing to moisten (1.75-2.00 inches) thru the remainder of the day (sunset). Light/variable to calm morning winds will transition onshore, once again, 5-10 kts as the ECSB moves inland fairly quickly during the day. Not overly comfortable with my 20-30pct PoPs along the immediate coast today (likely still too high!), with increasing chances inland 30-50pct this afternoon/early evening due to boundary collisions. The warm conditions aloft remaining the main culprit for keeping PoPs low. Primary storm threats remain occasional to frequent lightning strikes, brief gusty winds of 35 to 45 mph locally, and torrential downpours which could cause minor/nuisance flooding concerns. A sea breeze collision will occur (well inland) near the Lake/Orange County border by early this evening. Convection should diminish in the early-mid evening (or push west of our western counties). Expect mostly dry conditions overnight with PCloudy skies and light winds that will gradually become offshore. Temperatures will remain hot with conditions muggy. Afternoon maxes forecast near 90F to L90s near the coast and L-M90s inland. Can`t rule out an U90 degree reading or two well inland. Peak afternoon heat indices forecast 102-107F, and will NOT issue a Heat Advisory as we have been staying under criteria (>= 108F), however conditions still dictate that if outdoors, plan to take frequent breaks in air conditioning or shaded areas, stay well- hydrated, and know the signs of heat stress. This level of heat can still affect anyone without adequate cooling and hydration. Overnight mins remain warm and sultry and in the 70s. A High Risk for numerous, strong, life-threatening rip currents is forecast, again, today for beaches along the Volusia, Brevard, and Indian River coastline. Here, entering the water is strongly discouraged! A Moderate risk for dangerous rip currents remains in effect for St. Lucie and Martin County beaches. Mon-Tue...A non-tropical mid/upper level low pressure off of the Carolina coast is forecast to slowly drift southeastward towards the northern Bahamas and southern FL peninsula while on a gradual weakening trend. H500 temps still warm at -4.5C to -6.0C. Moisture (PWATs) continues to surge above 2 inches across much of the coverage warning area. At the surface, winds transition to light offshore, though we will still see development of the ECSB, but it may not push past (or too far past) the coastal counties. As such, late day boundary collisions will favor the eastern peninsula each day. A light offshore storm steering component develops on Mon, with this offshore flow increasing into Tue. Keeping 60pct areawide on both days. Very warm temperatures persist on Mon, with highs in the L-M90s and maxes coming in a little cooler for Tue in the U80s to L90s. This may be the result of increased cloudiness. The heat risk continues to be a concern into at least Mon, with peak heat indices a bit higher with increased humidity (105-110F) and a Heat Advisory may be necessary. Heat indices coming in slightly cooler for Tue at 101-106F areawide. Overnight lows consistent in the 70s. Wed-Sat...Conditions aloft remain a bit unsettled with troughiness and PWATs remaining around 2 inches. An offshore wind component develops by mid-week, reverting back to onshore again late in the period. Daily sea breezes (Thu-Sat) with initial inherited offshore steering flow, weakening and becoming more variable. Keeping PoPs around 60pct areawide each afternoon/evening. Highs in the U80s to L90s each day, with clouds and onset/extent of inland moving sea breezes the deciding factor in the lower end of high max potential. Lows continue mainly in the 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 304 AM EDT Sun Jul 7 2024 Generally favorable boating conditions continue into the middle of next week, outside of increasing shower/lightning storm activity; offshore moving Mon-Wed. Seas mainly 2-3 ft and perhaps a little higher invof lightning storms next week. The pressure gradient will remain fairly weak supporting a daily sea breeze thru Tue. Light offshore winds will develop each evening and overnight, becoming more prevailing into mid-week, and continue to keep wind speeds during the period AOB 15 kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 94 77 94 77 / 20 20 60 30 MCO 96 77 94 78 / 40 30 60 30 MLB 93 77 93 77 / 20 20 60 40 VRB 93 77 93 75 / 20 20 60 40 LEE 96 78 94 78 / 50 30 60 30 SFB 96 77 94 78 / 30 20 60 30 ORL 96 79 94 78 / 40 30 60 30 FPR 93 77 94 75 / 20 20 60 40 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sedlock AVIATION...Fehling