Severe Weather Potential Today from the Great Lakes to the Mid-South; Fire Weather Concerns for Southern California

Thunderstorms, some severe, are expected today along and ahead of a cold front extending from the Great Lakes into the Mid-South. Unseasonably mild weather is forecast along most of the eastern seaboard into Saturday. Meanwhile, temperatures are expected to remain below normal for parts of the West, Plains, and Rockies. Elevated fire weather conditions continue for Southern California.
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Hazardous Weather Conditions

Last Update: 402 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021

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Miami - South Florida Local Forecast Office

10NM E Virginia Key FL

Marine Zone Forecast


Synopsis: Weak high pressure will move eastward into the Western Atlantic waters from the Southeastern United States allowing for a cold front to move southward and through South Florida on Sunday. This will keep the weather dry on Saturday before return of some showers and even a few thunderstorms on Sunday ahead of the front. The showers and isolated storms will then continue over the local waters for early next week with the best coverage over the southern portions of the local waters.

.GULF STREAM HAZARDS...Seas will remain below 4 feet through Sunday before increasing to at least 7 feet early next week behind the frontal passage.

The approximate location of the west wall of the Gulf Stream as of Oct 14, 2021 at 1200 UTC...

14 nautical miles southeast of Fowey Rocks. 20 nautical miles east northeast of Port Everglades. 12 nautical miles east northeast of Lake Worth. 10 nautical miles east of Jupiter Inlet.

This data courtesy of the Naval Oceanographic Office.

Tonight
East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Saturday
North northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Saturday Night
North northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north northwest after midnight. Seas around 2 feet. Period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop.
Sunday
North winds 5 to 15 knots. Along the coast, seas around 2 feet. In the gulf stream, seas around 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet in the afternoon. Period 3 seconds. Intracoastal waters a light chop. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday Night
North northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet along the coast and 4 to 6 feet with occasional to 8 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Showers likely in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms through the night. Chance of showers after midnight.
Monday
Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet along the coast and 5 to 7 feet with occasional to 9 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Monday Night
East northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet along the coast and 5 to 7 feet with occasional to 9 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Tuesday
East northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with occasional seas to 5 feet along the coast and 4 to 6 feet with occasional to 8 feet in the gulf stream. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night
East northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
Wednesday
East northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Intracoastal waters choppy in exposed areas. Chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms.
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Last Update: 402 PM EDT Fri Oct 15 2021
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