358
FXUS65 KTWC 090947
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
247 AM MST Mon Mar 9 2026

.SYNOPSIS...A weather system will bring scattered showers,
isolated thunderstorms and high elevation snow to the area today
and Tuesday. High temperatures will start the week at or slightly
below normal then warm up to well above normal by the end of the
week into next weekend. A few locations will be near record highs
next weekend.


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Rain showers and high mountain snow today through Tuesday.
Rainfall amounts 0.2" to 0.45 inches with locally higher amounts
in the terrain and from any thunderstorm. Snow amounts generally
up to 2 inches.

2.Gusty southerly winds of 15 to 25 mph with strong gusts up to 35
mph. Areas along the International Border have 15-40% chance of
greater than 40 mph.

3. 30% chance for thunderstorms this afternoon to evening.
Thunderstorms can bring strong gusty winds and locally heavier
rainfall.

4. Warming and drying out starting by Wednesday. Temperatures will
running above normal by the end the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor satellite this morning show a cut-off
low west of Baja California. Earlier in the night, radar picked up
a few thunderstorms by Ajo towards Yuma. Radar estimates less than
a few hundredths of an inch. An early start to the weather event
for Southeast Arizona.

The cut-off low will slowly move towards Southeast Arizona. It
will continue to inject moisture. PWATs will come up throughout
today to above normal, around the 97th percentile, for this time
of year. This will lead to increasing chances for rain showers
today through Tuesday. Latest hi-res models show rain showers
developing by mid-morning, starting along the border. Coverage
will expand throughout the day with the best chances tonight into
Tuesday morning. There will enough solar heating and upper level
support for thunderstorm development in the afternoon to early
evening. Rainfall amounts for this event will be 0.2" to 0.45"
with locally higher amounts due to thunderstorms and in the higher
terrain. Snow will be confined to the mountain peaks with amounts
up to 2 inches. Higher amounts is possible due to thunderstorms.
The best times for snow accumulation will be late tonight to
early Tuesday.

Outside of thunderstorms, southerly winds will be up to 25 mph
with strong gusts. There is 70% for gusts to exceed 35 mph and
15-40% chance exceeding 40 mph, along the International Border,
from Avra Valley to Douglas. Wind speeds will come down in
intensity after 10pm tonight. There can be westerly breezes on
Tuesday as the low continues to move downstream.

The weather system will exit the region late Tuesday. There may be
linger showers in eastern part of the state, but low forecast
confidence. After, ridging will build over the west, leading to
drying and warming conditions. Temperatures will be at least 10
degrees above normal by the end of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 10/12Z. FEW cumulus clouds 8-10k ft AGL
with cirrus level clouds AOA 20k ft AGL through this early morning.
After 09/12z west of KTUS clouds 8-10k ft AGL bcmg SCT-BKN with
isolated -SHRA developing after 09/15z with areal coverage of
SHRA with isolated -TSRA increasing through the valid period. SFC
wind less than 10 kts this morning. After 09/15z, SFC winds
SLY/SWLY 10-20 kts with higher gusts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A weather system will move across the region
Monday night into Tuesday. This system will bring scattered
showers, isolated thunderstorms and high elevation snow to the
forecast area today into Tuesday. Temperatures will be around to
slightly below normal with this weather system. Southerly winds of
15 to 20 mph with strong gusts today and becoming westerly on
Tuesday at speed up to 15 mph. Normal diurnally driven winds less
than 15 mph return to the area after Wednesday. Dry conditions
return Wednesday with temperatures warming up to well above
normal Friday into next weekend.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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