133
FXUS64 KTSA 091141
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
641 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

 - Warm and breezy weather expected Monday; limited fire weather
   potential, especially for northeast Oklahoma.

 - Another storm system will bring a renewed threat of severe weather
   and heavy rain to the area Tuesday-Wednesday.

 - A strong cold front on Wednesday may bring a light freeze for a
   few areas in northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas on
   Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday Night)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Satellite imagery currently shows mostly clear skies across the
region. Southerly winds will remain somewhat elevated (5-10 mph)
overnight tonight and into Monday morning. These speeds should
help limit fog potential Monday morning. However, guidance has
been persistent at developing some locally dense valley fog in
terrain areas of southeast OK and northwest AR, close to sunrise
Monday. Any fog that develops should erode by mid-morning Monday.

South to southwest winds will crank up by mid-morning as the
pressure gradient tightens up. Winds gusts between 20 and 30 mph
will be common by the afternoon, with an occasional gust or two up
to 35 mph for parts of northeast OK. Fire weather concerns will
increase some starting around midday, especially for portions of
northeast OK, as a southwest-to-northeast oriented dryline mixes
eastward to near the I-44 corridor by mid-afternoon. Highest fire
danger concern will be north and west of the dryline, where RH
values will drop between 25 and 40 percent range by peak heating
time. With recent rains, the overall fire weather threat is
expected to be low, but will be worth monitoring. Afternoon high
temperatures on Monday will rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s
for most locations, but may spike into the middle 80s north and
west of the dryline in the afternoon.

Short-range and hi-res models have been persistent in showing a
weak and low-amplified shortwave trough moving across the area
eastern OK and northwest AR during the daytime. This feature is
already evident and taking shape in the latest satellite WV
imagery. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop overnight tonight and into early Monday
morning across southeast OK, spreading into west-central AR by
mid-morning or so. There will be marginal, but sufficient lift,
low-level moisture (dewpoints near 60F), instability (1000-1200
J/kg MUCAPE), and bulk shear (30-35 kts) in place for a marginally
elevated severe thunderstorm or two to develop, with large hail
and damaging wind gusts being the primary hazards if any organized
storm develops. The threat of severe weather is expected to shift
to the east by or just before noon, but a few showers and perhaps
a few thunderstorms may linger through the afternoon along the
far eastern periphery of the forecast area, including for parts of
northwest AR, as the shortwave slowly continue to exit to the
east.

Mostly dry weather is expected during the afternoon and into
Monday evening. Low-level moisture and cloud cover will rapidly
begin to increase Monday evening into Monday night as an upper-
level Baja CA low moves over northwest Mexico. Cloud cover and
elevated southerly winds will maintain very mild and humid
conditions into Tuesday morning, with overnight lows only reaching
the mid 60s for most locations.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

A vigorous closed-off mid-level low, split off from the north jet
stream, will lift over northwest Mexico Tuesday morning and
eventually will merge with a low-amplitude trough moving over the
Northern Plains on Wednesday. Deterministic GFS and ECMWF are
fairly identical synoptically, with regards to timing, position,
strength, and orientation of this feature as it moves over far
western TX late Tuesday night. However, there continues to be
smaller scale, and more local features that are in disagreement
with each other that will make the forecast on Tuesday
complicated. A few elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected
to form in the warm sector Tuesday morning and into the
afternoon. This should not amount to much, but the environment
will be favorable for at least some potential for isolated large
hail with storms that form. Otherwise, the main focus will turn
towards late in the afternoon into the early evening hours, when
chances of severe thunderstorms will increase across the area.
There is still a lot of uncertainty with how everything evolves
Tuesday afternoon. Latest thinking is that surface-based
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along and ahead of a dryline
that will be draped across western OK. These storms will be
capable of a severe weather hazards and will push east into
eastern OK and eventually into western AR late in the afternoon
and into early in the evening.

Storms will eventually cluster and become more linear
late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning as a cold front begins
approach the area from the north. Main hazards will be large hail
and damaging wind gusts, but a low tornado potential will exist as
well. As storm mode becomes more clustered and linear with time
Tuesday evening/night, the potential for flash flooding will also
increase. The flash flooding threat will persist through Wednesday
morning and into the afternoon as the cold front arrives and
brings in additional shower and thunderstorm chances. Storms along
the frontal boundary will eventually merge with lingering storms
from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across far eastern OK,
southeast OK, and western AR. This is when the heaviest and most
intense rainfall rates are expected to fall, with models
bullseyeing far southeast OK and west-central AR in the afternoon.
Overall, rainfall amounts will are expected to range between half
an inch and 2 inches, with isolated amounts of 3 or more inches
possible.

Cold front will push through the area Monday morning, with quick
clearing of precipitation and cloud coverage. Much cooler
temperatures are expected by Wednesday night, with a light freeze
possible along the KS/OK/MO/AR borders. Temperatures will quickly
rebound back into the 70s on Friday and 80s on Saturday. Rainfall
looks unlikely through at least Saturday.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
through this morning, mainly across SE OK and W-Central AR.
Additionally, low clouds have begun to work north into the area,
and MVFR cigs are expected to develop this morning across SE OK
and NW AR sites. Precipitation and low clouds will diminish by
this afternoon. South winds become gusty by late morning through
the afternoon, especially across NE OK and NW AR. By late evening
and overnight, LLJ intensifies again, providing LLWS for all sites
through the end of the forecast period. Additional low clouds and
precipitation potential arrive just after the valid TAF period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  65  83  57 /   0   0  40  70
FSM   80  64  81  62 /  30  10  60  90
MLC   82  66  80  59 /  10  10  60  90
BVO   85  60  83  51 /   0   0  40  70
FYV   78  62  79  57 /  20  10  60  80
BYV   77  64  78  57 /  10   0  50  80
MKO   81  65  79  57 /  10   0  50  80
MIO   80  64  80  53 /   0   0  40  80
F10   84  65  80  57 /  10   0  50  90
HHW   77  65  77  61 /  30  10  50  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...43