459
FXUS62 KTBW 191222
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
822 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory is in effect through 7pm this evening while hot
  and humid conditions will continue through the week.

- Moisture increases from north to south with rain chances closer
  to normal mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Early morning SHRA/TSRA and BKN clouds around the Tampa Bay area
have not developed as guidance indicated, so will remove convection
and tempos from coastal sites. W flow continues with afternoon
seabreeze producing occasionaly gusty winds pushing TSRA inland
thru the afternoon/evening hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Mostly clear conditions across the state this morning. Temperatures
ranging from the mid 70s to mid 80s. Meanwhile, upper level high
pressure remains over the Gulf keeping troughiness and associated
boundary north of the peninsula. This set up will allow for showers
and storms to develop over the water and move inland during the
morning hours, but should become more widespread in the afternoon
ans they push into the interior. Also, some of the energy associated
with the aforementioned disturbance could circle around the high and
slide into interior areas and along the East Coast. This combined
with enough available moisture and instability could support a
strong storm or two, especially over the interior during the
afternoon.

Additionally, this will also support dangerous heat. Therefore, a
Heat Advisory is in effect through 7PM this evening. Residents and
visitors should remain hydrated and take frequent breaks if planning
to spend time outdoors. Today will likely be the warmest day for the
week. Afternoon temperatures will range from the low 90s near the
coast to mid 90s over the interior with increasing cloud coverage.
Heat indices will get up to 112 degrees.

On Thursday, similar conditions are anticipated, except some drier
may try to mix in south of the I-4. This could limit showers and
storm coverage across SWFL.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRI-TUE)...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Going into the weekend, model guidance continues to push multiple
disturbance attempt to move into the area while high pressure
remains west. There will be battle for which areas get higher
moisture. Pockets of drier air advect south of the I-4 corridor,
especially during the weekend. Nonetheless, rain chances will
continue to increase with onshore flow prevailing. The slightly
lower temperatures may keep us just below advisory criteria, but it
will still feel very uncomfortable. Temperatures will be in the low
to mid 90s through the rest of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

High pressure remain over the Gulf keeping onshore flow in place.
Winds become breezy to around 10-15 knots through the day which
will increase wave activity along the beaches. Winds begin to
subside Thursday allowing pleasant marine conditions to persist
into the weekend, except overnight and early morning
showers/storms will be possible through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 359 AM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Area of high pressure continues to dominate keeping very warm and
humid conditions in place across fire districts. There will be
chances for showers and storms overnight and early morning near
the coast, before pushing inland and become more widespread as
onshore flow prevails. The main weather concern continues to be
the heat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  81  91  79 /  40  20  60  20
FMY  95  79  94  78 /  30  20  50  20
GIF  96  77  95  77 /  60  20  60  20
SRQ  94  79  92  78 /  30  20  60  30
BKV  94  76  94  75 /  40  30  50  20
SPG  93  81  91  80 /  30  20  60  30

&&

Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1

For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Citrus-Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-
     Coastal Lee-Coastal Levy-Coastal Manatee-Coastal Pasco-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Citrus-Inland Hernando-Inland Hillsborough-Inland
     Lee-Inland Levy-Inland Manatee-Inland Pasco-Inland Sarasota-
     Pinellas-Polk-Sumter.

Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley