Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
826 FXUS62 KTBW 070122 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 822 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above average temperatures continue into the weekend with some record high temperatures possible. - There is a low to medium chance of showers and a stray storm each afternoon and evening into early next week. - Some low clouds and patchy late night and early morning fog will be possible the next couple of mornings. && .UPDATE... Issued at 820 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 Lingering scattered convection currently across mostly coastal W FL is expected to gradually diminish through the remainder of the evening, after producing a few pockets of gusty winds earlier this evening along with spotty half-inch to inch rain totals, locally higher in a few locations. Mostly clear and mild conditions prevail tonight, with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s, likely a few degrees shy of record high minimums. On a climate note, Friday afternoon marked the fifth consecutive day with at least one of our local climate sites tying or breaking a previous record high. Additionally, TPA reached 90 degrees Friday afternoon, establishing not only a new record high for the date, but a new date for the earliest 90-degree reading for the Tampa Area climate record, supplanting the previous date of March 16, 1945. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 High pressure remains east of the region through the weekend, keeping an east to southeast wind flow over the local area. We will continue this summtertime-like pattern with the sea breeze forming and pushing eastward from the coast each day, leading to rain chances each afternoon through the weekend. Sunday`s chances do look a little lower as PW values drop a bit, but enough moisture will be around for about a 20-30% chance. These daily showers (and limited storms) will initiate along the sea breeze just away from the coast, and then eventually move out over the Gulf in the late evening. As we head into next week, a similar pattern continues, with limited rain chances through Wednesday. Moisture starts to increase again for the end of the week as another system moves over the southeastern U.S. and this will bring a return of showers and thunderstorms. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 Diminishing VC convection this evening with VFR continuing through the overnight hours, with the possible exception of some low cloud development after 08-09Z that could produce MVFR/IFR cigs and MVFR vsbys through sunrise, with greatest likelihood for PGD/LAL. Easterly winds overnight gradually shift/increase to E/SE through the morning before turning onshore/westerly at coastal terminals with the afternoon sea breeze. Convective potential again Saturday afternoon, however only included VCSH mention at LAL this cycle as guidance hints at reduced chances/coverage through the evening elsewhere. && .MARINE... Issued at 140 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 High pressure will remain over the region through the next several days, with easterly winds becoming onshore with the sea breeze each afternoon. There will also be a chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms each day, mainly in the late afternoon and evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 140 PM EST Fri Mar 6 2026 High pressure will prevail for the next several days, with easterly flow giving way to the sea breeze each afternoon. Overall, relative humidity values will remain above critical levels with no fire weather concerns. Patchy fog is possible over the next few mornings. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 69 86 68 85 / 30 20 10 20 FMY 68 89 66 88 / 20 20 10 20 GIF 67 86 67 87 / 0 30 10 30 SRQ 67 86 65 84 / 20 20 10 10 BKV 62 88 61 87 / 30 20 10 20 SPG 71 86 70 84 / 30 20 10 10 && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Carlisle DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Oglesby