150
FXUS64 KSJT 091126
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
626 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and storms with more widespread coverage expected for Tuesday
  afternoon through the overnight hours, with a potential for
  severe storms.

- Gusty north winds will follow a cold frontal passage on Wednesday.

- Thursday morning lows down in the 30s possible in at least parts
  of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 138 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

An upper low, currently west of the Baja region, will move slowly
east today and a little faster tonight into northwestern Mexico
by 6 AM Tuesday. An upper ridge will be over the Gulf. Our area
will be under southwest flow aloft. Low-level moisture is
returning in earnest to our area, with expansive low cloud cover
and dewpoints climbing through the upper 50s and into the lower
60s. Going through the day, skies will be partly cloudy over
northern parts of our area and mostly cloudy to the south. With
south-southwest winds today, temperatures will be warmer and highs
this afternoon will range from the upper 70s and lower 80s in our
southern counties, to the mid to upper 80s in most of the Big
Country.

Well out ahead of the aforementioned upper low, there are
indications for a weak, embedded shortwave in the southwest flow
aloft to move into the Big Bend area late this afternoon and
toward the Lower Pecos Valley by this evening. With this setup, a
few showers and thunderstorms will be possible in southwestern
parts of our area this evening and early tonight. Otherwise, skies
will be mostly cloudy tonight with a south breeze. Lows will be
well-above normal in the 60-65 degree range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1255 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

On Tuesday, an upper level low will be centered across northeast
Mexico. This low will then weaken and reach far West Texas Tuesday
evening, then track across West Central Texas on Wednesday.
Dewpoints ahead of this feature will be in the 60s across the
forecast area on Tuesday, which are unusually high for this time of
the year. A dryline is forecast to sharpen to our west Tuesday
afternoon and remain west of our area. Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms may develop ahead of the dryline, especially
during the late morning and afternoon hours. Although a few strong
to severe thunderstorms are possible, the main threat will during
the evening hours and into the overnight hours as a Pacific cold
front overtakes the dryline. This should occur during the late
afternoon or early evening hours, with showers and thunderstorms
quickly developing along the front. A line or broken line of
thunderstorms will then track east across the area through the
overnight hours. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
overnight, with large hail and damaging winds being the main
concerns. In addition, locally heavy rainfall may lead to minor
flooding, mainly of low lying areas and roadways. Most of the
convection will be east of the area by daybreak Wednesday, although
a few showers are possible across the Big Country during the
afternoon hour on the backside of the upper level low.

A stronger front will track south across the area on Wednesday, with
the passage of the aforementioned upper level low. Gusty north winds
of 15 to 25 mph can be expected behind the front along with cooler
temperatures. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 60s to mid
70s. A surface high will settle across the area Thursday morning.
This will result in light winds across the region, along with clear
skies, which will set up good radiational cooling conditions. Expect
overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s, although a few low lying
areas could drop into the mid 30s. Highs on Thursday will be mild,
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Unseasonably warm temperatures will
return Friday into the weekend. Highs on Friday will be in the low
to mid 80s with highs Saturday and Sunday in the mid 80s to lower
90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Low cloud cover is over most of our area early this morning.
Ceilings are mostly MVFR and in the range of 1000-2000 ft, but
occasionally below 1000ft at KJCT and at an AWOS 12 miles east of
KSOA. Expect occasional IFR conditions with patchy fog/mist at
our southern terminals into mid-morning. The low cloud cover
should break up by mid-to-late morning at KABI/KSJT while
persisting (with MVFR ceilings) at our southern TAF sites into
early afternoon. By mid-afternoon, expect ceilings to be VFR at
our southern terminals. Winds will be from the south-southwest
during the day today. The higher winds are expected at KABI, where
gusts 20-23 knots are anticipated. South winds will continue
tonight with the higher speeds at KABI. Expect at least patchy low
cloud development late tonight, most likely for our southern
terminals. Expect mainly MVFR ceilings, although IFR ceilings will
be possible at times at our southern terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     85  65  81  54 /   0  10  80  80
San Angelo  84  63  81  51 /   0  10  80  80
Junction    83  61  80  50 /  10  20  70  90
Brownwood   84  62  79  53 /   0  10  70  90
Sweetwater  86  65  81  54 /   0  10  80  60
Ozona       80  62  80  51 /   0  10  80  70
Brady       82  64  77  53 /   0  10  70  90

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....Daniels
AVIATION...19