701
FXUS61 KRNK 091028
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
628 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Aviation updated.

Dense fog has increased in coverage into the New River Valley
but still appears to be shallow and fluctuating per webcams/obs
so have a special weather statement out.

Some light mountain snow showers may be possible just behind
the cold front that moves through midweek, though no impacts are
expected.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Fog this morning in spots otherwise mainly dry through
Tuesday night.

2) A strong cold front moves in midweek, bringing widespread
rainfall, gusty winds, and possibly some brief mountain snow as
temperatures fall dramatically behind the front.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1: Fog will be locally dense this morning mainly in
the Piedmont.

Thanks to the rain from earlier today and clearing skies/light
wind fog has formed and become locally dense from the foothills
of NC northeast into the VA Piedmont. Latest model solution
paint this area with fog through the morning with visibility
dropping a quarter mile or less at times. Will monitor
trends/web/highway cams for potential needs for a special
weather statement for patchy dense fog vs dense fog advisory for
more widespread coverage.

Otherwise, as we head into mid morning fog will erode to mostly
sunny skies, a few cumulus clouds here and there. Should be
mild/war,as high pressure builds overhead with highs in the mid
60s to around 70 in the mountains to mid 70s east.

Front to our southeast will dissipate while another front tracks
toward the lower Great Lakes into Midwest Tuesday. Some upper
diffluence across the central Appalachians and weak low level
convergence could trigger a few showers mainly along/west of the
Blue Ridge, with best chances in WV. A thunderstorm also
possible with some marginal instability.

Tuesday should be about 5 degrees warmer with lower to mid 70s
mountains to around 80 Piedmont.


Key Message 2: A strong cold front moves in midweek, bringing
widespread rainfall, gusty winds, and possibly some brief mountain
snow as temperatures fall dramatically behind the front.

The next large system to impact our area will be late Wednesday into
Thursday morning, as a strong cold front moves through.
Synoptically, a cutoff low over the desert Southwestern US will spin
eastward into the southern Great Plains and get absorbed by a trough
from the northern jet stream. This will amplify the trough and allow
a potent cold front to move into the Eastern CONUS. While areas to
our west will see severe weather, the timing of the FROPA will be
during the overnight hours when instability is low and daytime
heating is lost. This will cause the severe threat to be low, though
an isolated damaging wind gust cannot be ruled out. Winds ahead of
the system will be elevated, gusting around 20-30 mph from the
southwest.

Scattered light rain showers will begin Wednesday morning as
moisture advects into the region ahead of the front. This continues
into the early afternoon before tapering off. A lull in rainfall is
then possible Wednesday evening until the front moves into the area
overnight. The rainfall could be heavy as it moves through, with up
to an inch possible in the mountains, with 0.25-0.50" possible along
the Blue Ridge and for the Piedmont. Once the front moves through
Thursday morning, temperatures will likely continue to fall
throughout the day as winds shift to the northwest and become quite
strong. This upslope flow will cause a few snow showers to develop
in the western mountains, though no impacts are expected as very
light accumulations would likely only occur on elevated surfaces as
the ground has been very warm.

The much colder conditions and strong winds will be quite the shock
to the system after the recent spring-like temperatures. Gusty winds
of 30-35+ mph will be possible area-wide with the ridgetops seeing
gusts near 50 mph possible. Temperatures fall throughout the day
Thursday, into the 30s/40s by late afternoon. Winds relax Thursday
night, but temperatures fall into the 20s to around 30 degrees area-
wide for Friday morning. The cold remains short-lived, as highs
return to the 60s by Saturday with 60s/70s for Sunday ahead of
another potentially strong system that will approach the area early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Low stratus/fog should erode at taf sites by 14-15z, but until
then looking at IFR or lower at all sites but perhaps ROA/LWB.

Should be VFR with light west wind for the rest of the period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mainly VFR through Tuesday, some potential for late night fog in
the river valleys, but low confidence. A few showers possible
Tuesday afternoon mainly along/west of ROA/BCB. Increasing
chances for showers arrive by late Wednesday into Thursday where
sub- VFR is more likely. Southwest winds pick up ahead of the
front Wednesday, then shift to the northwest Thursday with
potential gusts over 30kts. By Thu afternoon should be improving
to VFR east of the mountains and Thursday night into the
mountains which should persist into Friday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JCB/WP
AVIATION...SH/WP