797
FXUS61 KRLX 090917
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
517 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered dew points/RH for today across much of the area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
- 1) Much drier air takes hold across the area today behind
  departing cold front.

- 2) A weak shortwave moving through the area on Tuesday may
  provide light showers or an isolated storm.

- 3) Showers and storms return for Wednesday and Wednesday
  night, as a cold front moves through the area. Some storms
  could be strong to severe. Precipitation then transitions to
  snow or a rain snow mix Thursday behind the departing front.
  In addition, gusty winds will take hold, with wind advisory
  headlines possibly needed across the higher terrain of the
  northern mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Cold front is slowly departing to the south of the area this
morning. In its wake, much drier air is progged to move into the
region. Once afternoon mixing commences, expect RH values to plummet
into the 20 to 30 percent range, along with occasional gusty winds
in the teens. Not expecting widespread fire issues due to recent
rains, however, fuels will start to dry out across the area under
these conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

A weak shortwave will move through the area on
Tuesday. This will provide an increase in cloud cover, and some
light shower activity. An isolated storm cannot be completely ruled
out during the afternoon, but overall coverage of any precipitation
should be relatively limited.


KEY MESSAGE 3...

Showers and storms are expected to become more numerous
Wednesday/Wednesday night with the approach of a trough and surface
cold front. Front looks to generally move into the CWA Wednesday
evening. Strengthening low level southwesterly flow out ahead of the
front will advect above normal pw values into the area, with
localized water issues not completely out of the question, mainly in
locations that would get hit repetitively, as overall flow/speed of
storms should be sufficient enough to prevent widespread issues. As
far as severe threat, it`s still relatively uncertain at this point.
By the time the front comes in, it appears much of the instability
will be waning. In addition, there still remains uncertainty in
coverage of any activity earlier in the day and its effect on the
environment.  However, with the overall strong dynamics/shear
expected with the system, there does exist a damaging wind threat
during the period, and spc continues to highlight parts of the area
for severe potential.


Behind the front, much cooler air will filter into the region for
Thursday, with a transition to snow or a rain snow mix across areas.
In addition, gusty winds will take hold for Thursday behind the
front, with at least near advisory criteria winds expected across
the higher terrain. At this point, expecting minimal impacts due to
wintry weather with this system.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Patchy MVFR/IFR fog possible generally through 12Z-13Z in
deeper mountain valleys, mainly affecting site KEKN. Otherwise,
area of MVFR cigs spreading northward across southwest VA and
southern WV may affect sites KBKW, and perhaps KHTS and KCRW
generally 09-14Z.


Otherwise, after 14Z, widespread VFR conditions, with light
surface winds, although occasional gusts in the teens are
possible generally 16Z through 22Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of MVFR stratocumulus lifting to VFR
Monday morning may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...

IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
and Wednesday night, and in mixed wintry precipitation Thursday
morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SL
AVIATION...SL