397
FXUS62 KRAH 090926
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
525 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
As of 525 AM Monday...

* Dense Fog Advisory issued through 11 AM today.
* Increased confidence in near-record warm temps Tue through Wed.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
As of 525 AM Monday...

1) Dense Fog Advisory through 11 AM today.

2) Unseasonably warm temperatures through midweek are likely to meet
or exceed records.

3) Low predictability severe threat along a strong cold frontal
passage Wed night into Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 525 AM Monday...

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dense Fog Advisory through 11 AM today.

Fog has become dense over portions of the area and trends continue
to show worsening conditions through sunrise. Some areas may
see local visibilities of a few hundred feet or less. Be very
careful during the morning commute. Conditions will improve
my mid to late morning.

Otherwise, the low stratus and fog this morning will give way to
scattered to broken stratocumulus by late morning, then mainly sunny
skies this afternoon. It will be a bit cooler with highs in the 70s
expected. Laurinburg, Fayetteville and Clinton may touch 80.

Fog is not expected to be as widespread tonight, but some of the
guidance indicates localized radiational fog. Lows remain early May
like in March with 50s expected.


KEY MESSAGE 2... Unseasonably warm temperatures through midweek are
likely to meet or exceed records.

Today`s weak front dipping into NC from the NW will quickly weaken
further and dissipate later today. This will leave us within a
warming air mass as surface high pressure centered over Bermuda
strengthens and expands westward across the Carolinas and Southeast,
while ridging builds aloft. Temperatures will be well above normal
today, but the warmest conditions will be Tue through Wed when low
level thicknesses are projected to be 55-70 m above normal. These
values support recent guidance, including the last several
iterations of the deterministic NBM and statistical guidance from
the GFS and ECMWF, all of which have widespread highs in the 80s
both Tue and Wed, with Wed slightly hotter, and lows Tue night in
the upper 50s to lower 60s. We`re likely to come very close to or
exceed daily high temp and warm low records at our three climate
sites (GSO/RDU/FAY).


KEY MESSAGE 3... Low predictability severe threat along a strong
cold frontal passage Wed night into Thursday.

Guidance continues to simulate a complex and dynamic upper pattern
in the early extended period.  A strong upper low will move across
the Gulf States Wednesday through Thursday while a potent upper
trough lifts across the Ohio Valley/northeast. Guidance still
differs a bit on the phasing of these two features, but generally
expecting solid mid-level height falls and associated upper forcing
to spread over much of the mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas.

At the sfc, guidance continues to trend more towards a late
Wednesday night into Thursday morning frontal passage. Ahead of the
front, low-level moisture transport will maximize over the Carolinas
as dew points linger in the lower to mid 60s. However, there still
remain questions about how much available instability there will be
given a potentially unfavorable frontal passage. If slower to clear
east of the mountains, a severe threat seems plausible late Thursday
morning/early afternoon especially for those east of Raleigh.
However, we`ll likely need to wait till we are in range of the high-
res guidance to discern how much (if any at all) of a severe threat
may evolve in addition to storm mode/hazards.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 247 AM Monday...

Light winds and lingering low-level moisture along with clearing
skies will continue to favor the development of IFR to LIFR
conditions. Fog will be more prevalent across the Triad terminals
(KINT/KGSO), while low stratus with ceilings around 200500 ft will
be more common at KRDU, KFAY, and KRWI. The lowest visibilities and
ceilings are expected roughly between 09-14Z.

Conditions should gradually improve through the morning as fog lifts
and low stratus scatters, with a return to widespread VFR by late
morning or early afternoon. Light west to southwest winds will
prevail through the afternoon.

Outlook: Patchy early morning fog or low stratus may occur at any
terminal each day through Wednesday, otherwise VFR conditions will
largely prevail with only a small chance of isolated afternoon
showers. Aviation conditions are expected to deteriorate late
Wednesday night through Thursday as a strong cold front and upper-
level trough move through the region, bringing showers and possibly
a few thunderstorms with sub-VFR conditions and gusty, shifting
winds.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

March 9:  KGSO: 81/1974    KRDU: 84/2009    KFAY: 87/1974
March 10: KGSO: 78/2016    KRDU: 81/1974    KFAY: 84/1974
March 11: KGSO: 86/1967    KRDU: 85/1925    KFAY: 87/1925

Record High Minimum Temperatures:

March 9:  KGSO: 61/1921     KRDU: 61/1921    KFAY: 62/1980
March 10: KGSO: 58/2016     KRDU: 57/2020    KFAY: 65/1964
March 11: KGSO: 62/2016     KRDU: 63/2016    KFAY: 63/2016

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Badgett/Hartfield/Luchetti
AVIATION...Badgett/CA
CLIMATE...RAH