940
FXUS61 KPBZ 091056
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
656 AM EDT Mon Mar 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Thunderstorms return Wednesday with possible severe weather
Wednesday afternoon/evening.

2) Cooler weather late week with snow possible Thursday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A strong cold front will bring rounds of showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday into Wednesday night, with the potential
for severe weather -- including damaging winds and hail.

Ensembles suggest a potent upper-level trough will dig across
the Great Lakes Wednesday, driving a deepening surface low
through the Ohio Valley. A negatively tilted trough should
favorably support organized severe convection, and surface
instability will build in the warm sector Wednesday afternoon.
There remains some uncertainty related to morning convection and
lingering cloud cover potentially reducing surface
destabilization. NBM probabilities for exceeding 500 J/kg of
SBCAPE Wednesday afternoon have decreased somewhat as a result.
This will need to be monitored, especially as we near hi-res
model range.

The primary window for severe weather is Wednesday afternoon
through the early evening as the cold front sweeps through the
area. SPC has maintained a slight risk (2/5) for much of the
area, and machine learning convective forecasts all include at
least 15% probabilities for severe.


KEY MESSAGE 2...
A sharp temperature drop will follow the cold frontal passage
Wednesday night, bringing the potential for light snow --
especially across the higher terrain -- by Thursday morning.

The front is forecast to clear the area after midnight Thursday,
ushering in much colder air in NW flow. NBM probabilities show a
30-40% chance of exceeding 1 inch across the higher terrain,
with 50th percentile values very low across the area. This is a
decrease from previous runs, though NBM has a known low bias for
upslope snow in NW flow. Regardless, still-warm ground
temperatures may further limit overall accumulations.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR is expected through tonight as a ridge of high pressure
slides east across the region. Mixing is expected to result in
gusty SW wind today, with speeds around 20kt. Gusts should
diminish around sunset as mixing decreases. Mid level clouds are
expected to increase late tonight in warm advection ahead of the
next approaching shortwave trough.

Outlook...
Cig restrictions are possible Tuesday in warm, moist advection
with a weak crossing shortwave trough. More widespread
restrictions in rain and thunderstorms are expected late Tuesday
night and Wednesday with the approach and passage of a cold
front. The rain could change to snow before ending Wednesday
night behind the front.

Cig restrictions and gusty wind are likely Thursday in cold NW
flow and with a crossing upper trough. Restrictions in rain and
snow are possible Friday with another crossing cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rackley/Shallenberger
AVIATION...WM