122
FXUS63 KPAH 142229
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
529 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances have decreased for this afternoon and into the overnight.
  Tomorrow`s chances are more limited to the northwestern most
  portions of the area.

- A few of tomorrow`s storms could be strong to severe and are
  limited to mainly the northern most portions of the CWA.

- Cooler conditions are expected Friday through the weekend
  behind the cold front. Friday will also be breezy with
  northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph at times.

- Sunday kicks off a warming trend with highs returning back to
  around or slightly above normal by mid week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 529 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Updated Aviation discussion for 00Z TAF Issuance.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Above normal temperatures continue through tomorrow. A frontal
boundary is slowly sagging south through the northern portions of
the CWA this afternoon. The front will continue to drift south this
evening and should end up south of the CWA by the overnight hours.
It will then lift back north through the day tomorrow. The remainder
of today looks drier than originally forecast with dry air
infiltrating the mid levels. Some redevelopment may occur later
this afternoon and evening but uncertainty is higher due to the
models not picking up on the current situation very well. Some
showers and storms could form along and north of the front
tomorrow. A small portion of the areas including our northern
most counties could see a few strong to severe storms with the
main threat being damaging winds.

Tomorrow night a cold front comes through and brings cooler and
breezier conditions for Friday. Due to cloud cover and a stronger
cold air advection signal, have lowered highs slightly for Friday.
Friday`s highs look to be in the upper 50s and lower 60s with breezy
northwest winds with gusts up to 30 mph (mainly for northwest
portions of the area with lesser gusts elsewhere). Saturday highs
look to be in the 60s but Saturday night lows could be in the 30s
and could bring a first frost for the season. Sunday then kicks off
a warming trend with highs coming back up to around normal or even
slightly above by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 529 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

A front`s slow sag across the FA will focus shower/storm chances
with associated restricted bases/cigs and vsbys. IFR cigs are
possible overnight with diminished shower activity with time,
and may be slow/stubborn to improve tmrw but should eventually
climb thru restricted base categories and approach or reach into
VFR by/during the planning phase hours of the forecast.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...