885
FXUS64 KOUN 091010
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
510 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 508 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- Elevated to near critical fire weather northwest of I-44 today.

- Severe weather potential returns Tuesday.

- Several days of elevated to near critical fire weather
  conditions across western Oklahoma mid to late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Fire weather will again be the main concern today.

A well defined low level thermal ridge is forecast to extend over
western Oklahoma, reaching to central Oklahoma. With clear skies and
moderate near-westerly 850mb flow, downslope and mixing will bring
low RH values (low to mid teens, with some single digits) to a broad
portion of our forecast area including western, northern, and
central OK as well as western north TX. As with Sunday, RH recovery
will be delayed with minimum RH values occurring around 5 or 6pm.
Additionally, we will have breezy winds of 15 to 20 mph down the
center of this LLTR axis (roughly from southwest Oklahoma up through
central Oklahoma) through the day.

Yesterday`s verification showed that a mix of 50-70% HRRR with NBM
over all but south central Oklahoma gave a reasonable RH forecast.
With a similar mesoscale setup today, we went for a similar strategy.

Today appears to be a high-end RFD day. There are a few mitigating
factors that suggest staying below Red Flag Warning at this time.
For most of the area, RH recovery tonight is excellent (and will be
again tomorrow night). FEMS ERC Y is showing values in the 50th to
69th percentile range. The exception to this excellent recovery is
northwest Oklahoma, but that area will see lighter winds limiting
the RFTIs in that region.

Outside of fire weather, an upper wave may result in a few light
showers over southeast Oklahoma, though chances are low.
Temperatures will once again sore into the 80s (pushing 90 degrees
in southwest OK and western north TX) under the influence of sunny
skies and southwest surface flow.

Day

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

As more details come into clearer focus for Tuesday`s potential
severe storm event, questions increase.

The day will begin with WAA producing scattered showers and storms
over south central Oklahoma. These precipitation chances will start
low in the morning, then increase during the afternoon with daytime
heating. This activity is expected to be primarily elevated with
modest instability and shear. Afternoon / early evening storms will
have some risk of becoming strong to severe.

The next round is anticipated to ignite off the dryline late in the
afternoon / evening across parts of the Texas panhandle down into
west central Texas. This activity looks to focus across southern
Oklahoma and north Texas as it moves east with support from an upper
low traversing east toward central Texas. Deep layer shear is still
expected to be moderately strong and a decent low level jet will be
in place, but CAMs are suggesting that instability is quickly
scoured ahead of these storms. Initial storms will have the greatest
severe potential with uncertainty due to a questionable environment
and potential upscale growth increasing thereafter.

Finally, a front will surge south through the area overnight into
Wednesday morning. Additional showers and storms may develop
along this front, though severe potential will be lower with the
loss of instability. Once the front is through, we`ll be left with
a cooler, dry airmass.

Southeast Oklahoma has the best chance of receiving meaningful
rainfall. Amounts northwest of I-44 look to remain light on QPF.
Southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas will have the greatest
range of possibilities depending on how the dryline convection comes
together.

Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be windy. Tuesday`s winds will
be southerly at 15 to 25 mph. Post-frontal northerly winds on
Wednesday will be quite gusty with sustained speeds of 25 to 35 mph
and gusts up to 45 mph possible. A wind advisory will likely be
needed. Additionally, these winds will trigger a broad area of
elevated to near critical fire weather conditions on Wednesday.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 128 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Late week will be dry with daily occurrences of elevated fire
weather expected across our western counties. Temperatures will
gradually rebound after Wednesday`s frontal passage with 70s and 80s
expected again by Friday.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 508 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

MVFR ceilings are expected at KDUA, otherwise VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Southwesterly winds are expected at
most terminals today, with gusty winds possible this morning and
afternoon. Winds should back to the south after sunset, and are
expected to weaken some.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  86  65  81  55 /   0   0  40  70
Hobart OK         89  61  84  50 /   0  10  50  50
Wichita Falls TX  88  65  82  55 /   0  10  70  70
Gage OK           84  52  83  44 /   0   0  40  30
Ponca City OK     84  61  83  50 /   0   0  40  70
Durant OK         82  66  79  60 /  20  10  60  90

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...13